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The Guardian's Perspective on the Budget: Priorities Have Changed | Editorial | Opinion

 


Slogans can win elections. But the slogans will not cut him off from the government. Three months ago, Boris Johnson propelled himself to a victory in the general elections, constantly promising to advance Brexit and respect the priorities of the peoples. But this Prime Minister is not only campaigning in slogans. He also tries to rule in them. After the reshuffle of the past few months, the first cabinet meeting began with a demeaning exchange of debasement on the hospitals, police and nurses that the new ministers had promised to deliver. Each week, Johnson goes through Prime Ministers' questions with an equally empty recitation. Having removed Britain from the European Union (although it is absolutely not the same as doing Brexit), Mr Johnson is now trying to give the impression that the restoration of British public services requires nothing more than a quick collective song from him and his ministerial courtiers.

Democratic politics deserves better than this. Fortunately, events began to strain Mr. Johnsons' hand. The spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus clearly requires a level of national leadership that is different from the facetious version that the premiers have proposed so far. The continuing impact of winter flooding, which Mr. Johnson lacked, presents a similar long-term challenge for the government in the disaster areas of Britain. Next month, he could also face a more effective opposition leader than Jeremy Corbyn can never manage to be in his lame duck phase.

Most importantly, there is the Wednesday budget. The budget marks the time when the government must make and be judged on certain smart strategic choices regarding its priorities, spending levels, borrowing and tax policies. It is, more than anything, the moment when all these slogans hit the fan. But it is a time when the government is getting closer to the rear than it had anticipated. Mr Johnson lost his Chancellor, Sajid Javid, as the budget approached. Mr. Javid then said he would have reduced the basic income tax rate by 2p, while respecting his existing tax rules that daily spending should match tax revenue and a limit of 3% of GDP on spending of infrastructure. That Rishi Sunak, who accepted the position under the terms of # 10 on which Mr. Javid resigned, adopts this approach will be closely monitored. The result can shape the internal politics of the conservative party, with perhaps Mr Javid appearing as the background focal point for the more conservative budgetary approach than much of the right. conservative favors but that No. 10 rejects.

Now there is also the coronavirus. On weekends, the last chancellor to actually present a budget, Philip Hammond, warned that the epidemic could do as much economic damage as Brexit without a deal, which remains a strong possibility later this year. Businesses, said Mr Hammond, should benefit from budgetary incentives to maintain resilience stocks of goods and parts in order to protect supply chains. The answer, he said, is to build up reserves and conserve capital. However, this is precisely the approach to which Mr Johnson objects, invoking the priorities of the peoples.

As usual with any modern budget approach, there have been a lot of leaks from the Treasury (i.e. # 10 these days) on issues such as the fuel, tampons, paid time off for parents of premature babies and flooding. None of this sounds like the opening of the spending taps on large public service items that has been mentioned. Mr. Sunak himself went to television on Sunday to promise that the NHS will get everything it needs to fight the coronavirus. This is undoubtedly the right path. But that's a far cry from 40 new hospitals and a big boost to NHS recruitment.

With businesses also struggling, the housing market faltering, and retailers under pressure from hoarding and panic buying, it's hard for government to spend money in a way that resembles distance from the sunny promises that helped win the election. It will be hard to be the easy budget that Mr. Johnson imagined just a few weeks ago. The impact of coronavirus on the economy is simply too great and too uncertain. The real world comes into play and real politics with it. It was also time.

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