Health
Coronavirus pandemics expose the limits of science
With the financial crisis of 2008, the public has discovered the limits of economics. Covid-19’s pandemic risk affects scientists and doctors alike.
Since the onset of the outbreak, citizens have struggled to get clear answers to some basic questions. For example, consider a mask. The World Health Organization said there was no point in encouraging healthy people to use masks, but now most doctors agree that wearing a mask widely is a good idea. I will. There was some confusion about lockdown. In the UK, scientists argued that for weeks, the benefits of shutting down businesses and keeping people home could be at the cost of national life. Also, the declining epidemic in Italy has led to increased debate between national public health experts and doctors about whether the virus has died or is deadly.
These controversies are natural because we are dealing with a new coronavirus that caught most of the western health care system. Meanwhile, scientists around the world are competing to share data, and many companies are stepping up their research into vaccines, which may be one of the earliest developed in human history.
Still, the pandemic reminded me of the limitations of science, especially medicine. In a sense, the last few months were similar to what happened in the 2008 crisis as economists fought for the right response to the crash. The academic community was split between those who said the US government should save all the big banks and those who said Lehman Brothers should go bankrupt. In Europe, controversy focused on whether countries should pursue austerity or carry out large-scale budget deficits. These divisions and subsequent policy errors have detracted from the economists’ reputation in the public eye.
The comparison with 2008 is appropriate. Because economists are doing relatively well during this pandemic. Certainly, with the initial support of the European Central Bank and the UK Treasury, there was a belief that a rapid “V-shaped” recovery would continue after the outbreak. This hypothesis has gotten ridiculous as we have supported it, but economists have shown that governments and central banks have adopted fiscal and monetary policies to boost demand as lockdowns squeeze economic activity. We quickly reached the consensus that we should expand. It’s still in its infancy, but the overall impression of economics is that of a united professional and academic body who has learned from it, without wasting a financial crisis.
Meanwhile, scientists and doctors struggle to deliver a unified message to the public. This does not mean that they did not meet their obligations. Far from that. Health workers are the true heroes of this crisis, endangering their lives and protecting the rest of us. However, we have seen some scientists and doctors jump to conclusions on issues ranging from virus containment to prescribing effective treatments. (The controversy about the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine is one example.) This seesaw adds to the feeling of panic and confusion among the general public.
It is often said that economics is not science. It is difficult to predict. As the pandemic shows, even natural sciences struggle to face new phenomena. Research does not give an answer immediately. Scientists, doctors, and public health professionals should not be afraid to say what they do not yet know.
Ferdinand Giuliano has written Bloomberg View’s column and editorial on the European economy. He was also an economic columnist at La Repubblica and a member of the Financial Times editorial board.
This article is published without modification from the text of the telegram agency feed. Only the headline has changed.
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