Jokowi I declared a new standard, becoming a new power for Rupiah

Jakarta, CNBCIndonesia –The Rupiah started trading after Idul Fitri, weakening 0.34% to Rp 14.730 / US $ Tuesday (05/26/2020) yesterday, even if the sentiment was good, which should have allowed the rupiah to get stronger. Profit taking (profit taking) has become the culprit of the weakening of the rupee, know that since the beginning of April the Garuda currency has strengthened by almost 10%.

After being corrected, the opportunity for the rupee to strengthen again is certainly more open in trading today, Wednesday (05/27/2020). Technically, there has been no change in level which must be taken into account since yesterday.

The USD / IDR symbolized is currently around 61.8% of Fibonnaci Retracement in the range of Rp. 14,730 / US $, which could be a determinant of the rupee’s direction today.

The Fibonnaci retracement was pulled from the lower level on January 24 (Rp. 13,565 / US $) and then at the highest position intraday March 23 (IDR16,620 / US $).

If he stays on Fib. By falling 61.8%, the rupee should firm further to Rp 14,600-14,580 / US $ today.

Chart: Rupiah (USD / IDR) per day Photo: Refinitiv

In the meantime, the stochastic indicator on the daily chart is still at the oversold level (oversold) in a fairly long time, the risk of correction of the rupee is quite significant if it moves again and remains above Fib. 61.8% retracement.

Stochastics is a leading indicator or an indicator that triggers price movements. When Stochastic reaches the oversold zone (greater than less than 20), the price of an instrument has the possibility of reversing. In this case, the USD / IDR has the opportunity to increase, which means that the US dollar has a chance to strengthen after the stochastic has reached oversold.

If it returns above Rp 14,730 / US $, the rupee may weaken to Rp 14,830 / US $.

For a fairly long term, strong resistance (resistance above) is in the range of Rp. 15,090 -15,100 / US $, which represents a Fibonnaci retracement of 50%. The resistance succeeded twice in curbing the weakening of the rupee.

During retained under Fib. 50%, in the future, the opportunities for strengthening the rupee are still open.

Fundamentally, the sentiment of market players today is quite good after President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) rolled back the economy by preparing for a new era of life (new normal).

Speaking during the review of standard procedures for dealing with a new normal at the Summarecon Mall in the city of Bekasi in West Java, Jokowi confirmed his visit to the mall to ensure that the area is ready to face a new normal.

“I came to the city of Bekasi, in the province of West Java to ensure the implementation of our activities leading to a new order to a new normal,” he said on Tuesday (05/26/2020) .

With the new order of normal life, the wheels of the economy can be put back into rotation even by applying strict health protocols. Turning the wheels of the economy is certainly good news that can slowly bring the economy back from adversity.

In addition, more and more vaccines likely to become anti-corona viruses are making market players happy. The latest US biotechnology company, Novavax, said earlier this week that it has started clinical trials of the corona virus vaccine. Novavax expects the first results of the clinical trial to be published in July.

More and more vaccines that may be anti-corona viruses would certainly be good news, the hope that the corona virus will soon disappear from the face of the earth is growing and that humans can once again live normally.

[Gambas:Video CNBC]

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH TEAM

(pap / hps)

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