When will the volcanoes of Hawaii National Park seriously erupt?

The probability of a devastating earthquake minor or greater in the next 100 years. Population exposure estimates are rounded to the nearest 1000/USGS

Mild shaking and panic in Hawaii are very common, as is the boiling of Kīleau volcano, and what happens with the volcanic plumbing that led to the formation of the islands. Just the other day, the US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reported a 4.3-magnitude earthquake that sent a slight shaking to the islands.

The observatory stated that “the earthquake was centered about 8 kilometers (5 miles) east-northeast of Pahala, at a depth of 34 kilometers (21 miles). “Mild shaking … was reported in parts of the island of Hawaii. At this intensity, no significant damage to buildings or structures is expected.”

According to responsible HVO scientist Ken Hoon, the earthquake did not have a noticeable impact on the Mauna Loa or Kolawea volcanoes that rise within the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.

“This earthquake is part of the ongoing seismic swarm under the Pahala region, which began in August 2019. Webcams and other data streams show no impact on the ongoing eruption at Kīlauea,” Hoon said.

While this earthquake appears to have been insignificant, what are the odds of a more dangerous and damaging volcanic eruption? According to observatory scientists, it is very good.

“Hawaii is a seismically active state, as evidenced by the thousands of earthquakes recorded by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory each year,” reports the USGS. “Destructive ground shaking has occurred over the decades, with two M6.7+ earthquakes in 2006 and 2018, most recently the M5.2 earthquake on July 5, 2021, felt by more than 1,300 people, and the M6.2 earthquake on October 10, 2021, being felt most of 3,500 people.

New USGS modeling shows there is a “90 percent chance that 345,000 people on Hawaii and Maui will experience harmful levels of vibration over the next 100 years (blink of an eye in geological time). A lower but significant chance is expected. to cause vibration damage across Oahu; and within the southeastern part of the island near Honolulu, there is a greater than 50 percent chance of causing vibration damage during this period.”

In a December report, Mark Petersen, a research geophysicist with the USGS and lead author of the publication, said:[T]The previous hazard model was developed more than 20 years ago, and since that time we have witnessed many large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and collected strong deformation, soil and motion data that can be used to improve these forecasts. We’ve collaborated with scientists and engineers across Hawaii and the rest of the United States to build these models. The new seismic hazard maps can be used to update building codes and other planning documents that will improve seismic safety across Hawaii.”

The map and publications feature new earthquake catalogs, assessments of activity on active faults using geological and geodetic measurements, and assessments of robust seismic data to determine ground shaking levels expected from earthquakes in the Hawaiian Islands, the USGS said.

Earth shaking is expected to be higher near the active volcanoes of Kīlauea and Mauna Loa in the southern part of the island of Hawaii. Here magmatic activity pushes the crust outward toward the ocean along a roughly horizontal fault located about 6 miles (10 kilometers) below the surface. Major earthquakes occurred in this region in 1868, 1975, 2018, and 2021. The 2018 earthquake was followed by a volcanic chain that included several seismic avalanches of the Colauya Crater floor. This provided data that helped determine the levels of vibration predicted by the model.

Despite the latest research, the USGS team says: “[W]While earthquake activity remains high today, it appears to have decreased compared to the previous century, which could be related to lower volcanic activity on Mauna Loa. Differences in earthquake activity are taken into account in the new models with earthquake activity expected to return to previous levels or continue at the current level.”

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