Health
California just entered it second-highest COVID death wave
We’ve all heard by now how omicron is the milder of the mutants, but it’s leaving a significant mark on California’s coronavirus death toll: COVID-19 death rates in the Golden State hit a new high this week in the post-vaccine era of the pandemic.
As of Thursday, the state was averaging 157 new COVID deaths a day, more than anytime since last winter’s deadly surge, before vaccines became widespread, a 300% increase from just a month ago.
Throughout the pandemic, COVID deaths have followed a pattern: peaking 3-4 weeks after cases and 1-2 weeks after hospitalizations start to decline, and that’s proving to be no different during this winter’s record surge from the super-contagious omicron. But what isn’t clear this time is just how deadly this “milder variant” will prove to be.
The answer is becoming clear. More people are dying than during the surges of delta last summer or the virus’initial waves in early 2020. However, the percentage of new cases that result in death is declining.
While it’s still too early to be precise, your chances of dying if you get COVID is much lower now, dramatically so if you are vaccinated. But your chances of being infected were more than twice as high in California in recent weeks than last winter.
With so many more people getting sick, the raw number of deaths — especially among the elderly and medically vulnerable — is destined to climb, even thought the proportion of cases that end in death is lower.
Infectious disease expert John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at UC Berkeley’s School of Public Health says he expects deaths to continue to rise for another week or two, “but I don’t think we’re going to get anywhere near the previous death records. ”
We only have two years of data to base our predictions on, Swartzberg points out, and this wave has been anything but predictable.
COVID deaths around the country are also occurring at nearly the second highest rate since last winter’s surge, with an average 2,288 each day over the last week. That is just a few deaths under the average reported at the end of April 2020, during the first big COVID surge, and 33% lower than the record-high 3,422 average daily deaths in early January 2021.
It’s already topped the peak of last summer’s delta wave, which peaked at about 2,100 average daily deaths in September.
Public health experts say the sheer number of omicron cases has the US headed toward a grim milestone.
“Omicron will push us over a million deaths,” Andrew Noymer, a public health professor at the University of California, Irvine, told the Associated Press. “That will cause a lot of soul searching. There will be a lot of discussion about what we could have done differently, how many of the deaths were preventable. ”
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