The region needs to prepare for the next earthquake

Experts have warned for decades that a large swathe of the central United States is at high risk of a devastating earthquake. They know that overcoming complacency is among the biggest obstacles they face.

Hundreds of emergency managers, transportation leaders, geologists and other earthquake preparedness professionals recently gathered in St. Louis for the annual Missouri Earthquake Summit to discuss the latest information on risks, preparedness strategies and recovery planning.

Large and devastating earthquakes in the United States are associated with the West Coast — for good reason since the worst earthquakes in recent years, including the massive 1989 San Francisco-area earthquake that killed 63 people and injured nearly 3,800 — have mostly been in the West.

But the New Madrid fault line centered near the town of New Madrid in southeastern Missouri produced earthquakes of magnitude 7.5 to 7.7, and rang church bells as far away as South Carolina, causing farmland to sink into swamps and briefly causing the Mississippi River to flow backwards. .

These earthquakes occurred in late 1811 and early 1812. Although the fault line still produces about 200 small earthquakes each year, people in the area have long heard the warnings about the next big earthquake which, for many, goes in one ear The other comes out.

“Since it didn’t happen, and with people’s busy daily lives, it kind of falls into the background,” said Robbie Myers, director of emergency management for Butler County, Missouri, in the heart of the new Madrid area.

The earthquake threat got the most attention more than three decades ago when climate scientist Ben Browning predicted a 50-50 chance of a major earthquake on a specific day – December 3, 1990.

His anticipation drew dozens of journalists and spectators to New Madrid to see – nothing.

However, experts believe there is a 7-10% chance of a 7.0-magnitude or larger earthquake in the next 50 years within the New Madrid region, and a 25-40% chance of a smaller but still destructive 6.0-magnitude earthquake. The Midwest risks are “like the opportunities in California,” said Thomas Pratt, the US Central and Eastern coordinator for the US Geological Survey’s seismic risk program.

In addition to the thousands of deaths, experts said, bridges crossing the Mississippi River could fall, major highways including Interstate 55 could be disrupted, and oil and gas pipelines could break, causing nationwide unrest.

Matthew Clotter, FEMA operational planner, said a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in the New Madrid region could displace nearly 850,000 people in as many as eight states. With roads and bridges breached, emergency aid may be cut off to affected areas due to road and bridge damage.

“If the eight states are affected, there will be a struggle for resources,” Clutter said.

Memphis, Tennessee, within the region. St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Little Rock, Arkansas are within close enough distance to worry. In all, about 45 million people live in the worst-affected area.

Some societies were more active than others in their preparations.

In Memphis, the Interstate 40 bridge into the city received $260 million to retrofit it to protect against a strong earthquake. Building codes were upgraded a decade ago to require stricter building standards with seismic risk in mind.

In St. Louis, designers say the 29-story apartment tower overlooking Busch Stadium that opened in 2020 sways rather than collapses in the event of a major earthquake. It’s the same engineering protection built into the highlights of St. Louis. The portal arc, completed in the 1960s, would have swung up to 18 inches (45 cm) if an earthquake occurred.

Meanwhile, a new bridge has been built in St. Louis over the Mississippi River that opened in 2014 with foundations all the way into the rock to keep it stable and standing in the event of an earthquake. The area’s busiest river crossing, the Poplar Street Bridge, has been modified to provide additional protection.

However, most homes and commercial buildings within the area are not earthquake ready.

“Many places in the region do not have building codes, and very few existing building codes require earthquake-resistant design,” according to a fact sheet from the American Institute of Geosciences.

City, county and state emergency managers say they are trying to raise awareness among residents.

“We always encourage people to look at their insurance coverage, look at things like your utilities, if you have a hot water heater, and make sure it’s hooked up,” said Sarah Russell, Commissioner of Emergency Management in St. Louis.

The Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance said the percentage of homeowners with earthquake insurance in Missouri counties in the heart of the New Madrid area fell from 60.2% in 2000 to 12.7% in 2020. The agency blamed the high cost of insurance, which rose by 760 % in those counties over a 20-year period.

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