A report said Tokyo has improved earthquake safety, but thousands of lives are still at risk

A sign indicates the way to the evacuation area in Tokyo’s Minato Pavilion, Friday, May 27, 2022 (Akifumi Ishikawa / Stars and Stripes)

TOKYO – The next major earthquake to hit the Japanese capital is likely to kill more than 6,000 people, injure 93,000 more and leave 4.5 million homeless, according to a government report released Wednesday.

A 7.3-magnitude earthquake centered in south-central Tokyo would also destroy more than 194,000 buildings, according to the first earthquake study by the Tokyo metropolitan government in a decade. The report estimates that there is a 70% chance of such an earthquake occurring in the next 30 years.

The Tokyo area is home to approximately 12,000 US military personnel and family members, most of whom live at Yokota Air Force Base in the western part of the prefecture.

The Tokyo metropolitan area is home to more than 37 million people. (Akifumi Ishikawa / Stars and Stripes)

However, a panel of experts cited in the report projected less damage from the next earthquake than a similar report estimated in 2012. That report projected more than 9,000 deaths, 147,000 injuries, 304,000 buildings damaged, and 5.2 million people unable to return home.

More earthquake-resistant homes and fewer log homes in densely populated communities factor in the new estimate, according to the latest report.

“The Tokyo metropolitan government has been working to further enhance resilience… since the Great East Japan Earthquake,” the report states.

The 9-magnitude earthquake that struck Japan in March 2011 triggered a tsunami that inundated the northeastern coast, killing more than 19,000 people and causing the collapse of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

Since then, the proportion of earthquake-resistant homes in Tokyo has increased from 81.2% to 92%. According to the report, more than nine out of 10 buildings along major roads designated for emergency use are now earthquake resistant.

A major earthquake in Tokyo will cause 80,000 buildings to collapse, or 40,000 fewer than 120,000 in a 2012 report.

The report notes that fewer log homes in dense suburbs means fewer fire deaths after the major earthquake, from 4,100 to 2,500.

According to the report, the probability of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake along the Tachikawa Fault, near where many US military personnel live and work, is extremely low, at only 0.5 to 2% over the next 30 years.

The Tokyo Shimbun reported Wednesday that the cities of Musashimurayama, Akishima, Fusa and Tachikawa would be severely shaken. A major event along this fault could potentially kill 1,500 people, injure 19,000 and damage 52,000 buildings, according to the capital’s government report. Another 590,000 people will be forced to evacuate.

That’s less than the 2,500 deaths, 31,000 injuries, 1 million evacuees, and 86,000 damaged buildings projected in the 2012 study.

Structures built in Yokota after 1981 comply with Japanese national standards and should still stand, even in the event of a very large earthquake, Roland Nishimura, head of architecture for the 374th Engineering Squadron, said in March 2012. earthquake said.

Even the base’s residential towers, Nishimura said, appear to be able to withstand an earthquake.

Naoshi Hirata, director of the Earthquake Prediction Research Center at the University of Tokyo, said Tokyo residents, including the US military community, should be prepared.

“An earthquake that may occur somewhere in Tokyo is very strong when it appears around the world,” he said by phone on Friday.

Furniture, such as bookshelves and tall cabinets, must be secured from falling and injuring people. Hirata said the military should stockpile food and water for base residents in case of emergency.

“The Tokyo city government is asking people to have stock for at least three days and, if possible, for a week,” he said.

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