Reinsurance companies can reduce earthquake risk after giant confidence events

Seismic hazard models attempt to predict the long-term risk of earthquakes by looking, among other things, at the slowly changing stress that builds on faults.

However, there is new evidence to suggest that mega-quakes and other very large earthquakes fundamentally change the nature of the hazard.

These large events actually appear to slow seismic activity at the epicenter, while charging it strongly in the surrounding areas.

A new study by Temblor (a disaster risk modeling company with a focus on earthquakes) and Tohoku University in Japan indicates that in the aftermath of a massive earthquake, aftershocks on the rupture surface quickly closed. Meanwhile, large aftershocks illuminate the surrounding area, putting coastal population centers at risk.

Researchers have studied earthquakes since 1960 with a magnitude of nine or more. They found that after each event, seismic rates fell well below the rate observed in the decades before the giant confidence.

Immediately after each of these events, a surrounding seismic “aura” was activated, and it remains active to this day. The mechanism by which this occurs, by which stress is transferred from the rupture to the surrounding faults, is known as Coulomb stress transfer.

This has obvious implications for reinsurance companies dealing with natural disasters. If risk models fail to account for the way the picture is altered by seismic events, they cannot hope to accurately measure the level of risk that provides cover against them.

Most current hazard models assume that the risk of further seismic activity decreases after a significant rise. The new research suggests that there is a net risk increase, lasting about half a century, spread over an area up to ten times larger than the primary core.

To support this interpretation, researchers used the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an example of this phenomenon. In the decade prior to the eruption there were four or five shocks of 6.7 degrees or greater. In the decade since there have been 22 such events. They say their research shows a forecasting skill that can be used to improve risk assessments.

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