Michigan’s ability to contain cases is tested as COVID continues to develop

Linda Vale has no idea how long she and her staff can continue to work for 18 hours.

Ingham County health officials step into Zoom while she packs a rustic bowl of cereal for breakfast. Busy for a few weeks: As of Tuesday, her staff tabulated over 100 COVID-19 cases connected to Harper’s Restaurant and Brew Pub, an East Lansing spot. Popular with college students.

“Our staff is scrambling again to catch up with the high daily case counts seen throughout this period,” says Vail. “This is very honest and shocking. If you look at us curve Now you will be-wait, I can show you,” she says, pulling up a graph of the mountain climbing COVID-19 case from the county’s website. “It’s like my goodness.”

While the large Lansing area is bright red with the state color coded COVID map, Means a transition to “high risk”. So far, the main cases of this outbreak have not looked disastrous. According to the county, all people infected with Harper’s Restaurant and Bar are under the age of 28, with mild symptoms and few hospitalizations. A county spokesman said about 40% were students or recent graduates of Michigan State University.

But authorities are wary of secondary infections. You may have been in contact with someone infected with COVID at Harper’s and you may be at greater risk depending on your age and health. And they are not limited to Ingham County. Many of the people in Harpers were from towns from at least 12 other counties in the state. Already, Bail staff have reported more than 12 secondary cases.

“If you’re dating a parent in your 40s and 50s with diabetes and heart disease, you’re putting your loved ones at risk if you’re around a grandmother,” Bale says. “We are starting to send a few more messages to make it understand.”

report Indicates that another of those individuals may have spread the virus Other gatherings Wayne County. Four people in Harper were from Wayne County, according to a County Health Department spokeswoman. (The spokesperson immediately answered a question about the number of cases Wayne County had associated with secondary infections that could be associated with Harpers, and whether any of those cases were hospitalized. did not.)

Despite Michigan reporting relatively low daily new cases and hospital admissions, communities around the state have clusters of COVID cases that are completely unrelated to the outbreak in Ingham County Is visible.

“There was an outbreak that was of concern as an early outbreak,” says Lisa Peacock, a health officer for both the Northwestern Michigan and Benjiree Lanau District Health Departments. “There was an outbreak at a care facility we controlled. One of our counties had a family cohort. Another county had a cluster of workplaces. There was a case [but they are] It does not show a cluster. ”

So far, Peacock says they have been able to quickly find and contain those clusters. But she says they expect more to come.

“Did you get more conscious of seeing what’s going on at Lansing restaurants and bars? Absolutely,” she says. “Do you know that people travel throughout Michigan during this time and come to our area more often? Of course, we’re more conscious and ready to change. It’s done, and I’m looking forward to some shift.”

Michigan’s new “hotspot”

The State Department of Health recently raised the Grand Rapids region to “high risk.” This is because the increase over the last two weeks has exceeded the 20 new daily cases per million, and the positive rate increased during the test period. With the increasing number of cases, some areas are also called “hotspots”, from St Clair and Lapier in the eastern state to Eaton, Clinton, Livingston in central Michigan and New Aygo and Oceana in western Michigan.

In Lapier County alone, 60 new cases In less than two weeks (17-29 June), the total number of counties reached 291 as of Monday.

On June 22, Kathy Haskins, Director of Health at Lapier County, statement About the first case tied to migrant farm workers. “These workers

The Hapiers statement said:

“Near the weekend, we reported a cluster of eight related cases of COVID-19. These cases were related to the county’s migrant employee population, resulting in additional testing last Friday. Many of these test results have returned, and an additional 24 cases have been identified, most of which relate to the first reported cluster. At the moment most of these cases are , Three camps and a few private residents are involved.”

By June 26, the county had reported 13 new cases for the day. “At least four new cases have nothing to do with the population of our significant migrant workers,” Haskins said in writing. statement. “More workers were more negative than positive.” Since then, the growth of the lapier has seemed to slow, with three new cases occurring in three days.

Images very different from states such as Texas, Arizona

Yet, the scattered outbreaks of Michigan are vastly different from the record high case numbers and hospitalizations that are currently occurring in states like Texas.

Emily Martin, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, said, “As spikes are seen in different parts of the state, local public health has the tools they need to reach and respond to things. Is clear.” “And what we don’t see is infection from many communities from completely unknown sources, such as the exponential growth of epidemics, where we don’t know where it comes from.

“That is, the current level was a really good place to try to manage this in the future. But this is kind of like a wobbler game, and we’re looking for these patches in the case. Must always be vigilant, so it’s only a few trials to see if this holds.”

At the peak of April, Michigan 1,251 new cases every day (Based on a rolling average of 7 days.) Currently, even with additional testing, the average number of new cases per day is close to 300. Hospitalization rates were low, with 471 patients hospitalized throughout the state.Recently available data.

Even with additional testing, only 2.4% of daily COVID tests return positive in Michigan (the World Health Organization recommends that it be below 5% before the state reopens). ..

“[That] For every 100 people tested, Martin says only a few have returned to positives. “And at that rate, they were able to keep things under control to some extent.”

Compare, 24.4% The Arizona COVID test has returned to positive based on weekly averages. Florida has a positive test rate of 15.6% and Texas has 14.1%.

But Martin warns against seeing this as a new wave of infectious diseases.

“What makes me uncomfortable is that everyone calls this the second wave. And I, like people, do not end with the first wave. I’ll slow it down, because the second wave gets ugly.”

Autumn may get ugly

Michigan has to prepare itself for the possibility that their county, or even the entire state, will have to close again in the fall. That’s what Ingham County health official Bale said he wanted people to take away from the current outbreak.

“Anyone planning an event, a wedding, a gathering, or going back to campus and back to school should always be prepared for that,” she says. say. “I was able to see what’s happening right here in Ingham County [become a larger outbreak.]”

And Michigan’s resources for identifying and stopping these outbreaks are not unlimited. Vail, along with several other county health departments, is worried about the budget needed to do the necessary testing, contact tracking, and case studies. Currently, there are about 20 to 30 county public health workers investigating these cases, and the state provides trained volunteers to assist with contact tracking.

“Economically, like everyone else, the county sees a significant budget deficit,” she says. “I had to submit a budget description in line with the budget I submitted this year, and most of my budget description was literal, not the time when you could reduce public health. We’re told we need to cut our budget, but we’re facing a pandemic, and if we’re small, we can’t control it.”

This is especially important if the climate gets colder, people spend more time indoors, and the school resumes some face-to-face instruction.

“Now we do enough testing to take care of people, and then we do a fair amount of oversight to see what we’re missing. That’s good. “Martin says. home….

“I’m really worried when it comes to the fall and the cold and flu season. In schools where 20% of children suddenly have a fever, the flu can actually help determine the cause of the fever. Without these systems, it could be scary for parents, for public health, and for everyone, is it flu, or something else, or is it COVID?”

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