Unless Papua New Guinea prepares now, the next big earthquake could wreak havoc in Lae

Earthquakes can be particularly devastating for developing countries, where competing priorities can hamper resource allocation toward earthquake resistance.

Even in tectonically active regions, where tectonic plates meet and repel each other, large earthquakes may not occur often enough to seem like a priority compared to more pressing concerns. That is, until one destroys a populated area, as we are witnessing now with the tragedy in Afghanistan.

Nowhere is this healthier than this in Papua New Guinea. PNG is located in one of the most tectonically active regions in the world – an area that experiences more than 100 earthquakes of five or more magnitudes each year.

The stability and economic development of Papua New Guinea is of great importance to Australia. However, seismologists know that recent development gains can be threatened by earthquakes.

We helped create an updated National Seismic Hazard Map for PNG based on recent earthquake data and knowledge of active faults.

The map was developed in partnership between Geoscience Australia and the Government of Papua New Guinea’s Port Moresby Geophysical Observatory. First published in 2019, it now provides the backbone of our ongoing work in earthquake risk assessment and management in Papua New Guinea.

eyes on ly

The high level of seismic activity in Papua New Guinea was already recognized in the national earthquake risk maps developed in 1982. But the poor quality data used in these early risk maps yielded broad areas of moderately elevated risk – and did not reflect high levels of risk. Very close to active faults.

It’s worrying that the current building codes in PNG are still based on these old maps. Buildings and infrastructure near active faults may be vulnerable to large local earthquakes—particularly since Papua New Guinea has adopted ‘Western’ building materials such as masonry, which can be less resilient than traditional wood structures.

The latest national seismic hazard map shows a particularly pronounced hazard in Lae, Papua New Guinea’s second largest city. Lay sits next to the boundary of an active major tectonic plate known as the Rameau-Markham Fault System.

With a population of over 100,000, many lives and livelihoods would be threatened by a major earthquake. Lae is also a major economic center of the country. It has the largest port and is the starting point for the transport artery that runs through the mainland PNG.

Concerns raised by the latest hazard mapping about potential vulnerabilities in Lae led to the start of the Lay Earthquake Hazard Project, which is involved with the University of Technology in Lae and the University of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby.

Our research goal is to better understand and model the potential effects of the Ramu-Markham earthquake, and how Lae can enhance its resilience in the event of a major earthquake.

We helped install a seismic sensor in New Britain, Papua New Guinea, in 2019. Similar seismic sensors will be installed in Lae as part of the new project. How could the Ramo Markham earthquake happen?

Large earthquakes occur when two tectonic plates move against each other.

In the case of the Ramu-Markham fault system, there are two plates converging or pointing towards each other. This movement results in friction along the fault, which leads to increased pressure. An earthquake occurs when the accumulated stress exceeds the force of friction along the fault.

While we often think of a geological fault as a “streak,” a major fault system like the Ramu-Markham is made up of several parts. Any part of these segments (or group) may be active.

Segments are often overlapping, each with a distinct activity level. We can record this activity using precise GPS measurements of Earth’s movements, also called “strain”.

Our work began by identifying the active parts of the Ramu-Markham fault system that accumulate stress energy that would be released in an earthquake. We found that ground motion in this fault system can be explained by activity on a single segment called the gain fault.

This part of the fault is more than 100 km long and most of the Lae region lies within 15 km of it. A large earthquake at this distance could cause extensive damage.

The Gain and Bumbu faults are two parallel segments of the Ramu-Markham fault system passing near Lae. The author / Google Maps made a Bumbu error

Although GPS measurements of Earth motion correspond to activity that is limited to gain error only, this may not be the only way to explain the data.

The Bumbu fault is another part of the Ramu-Markham Fault System, further south, which cuts through Lae’s CBD. If it’s active, it’s probably a bigger concern than gain error.

Studies in the 1990s on the geology of the Lai urban center indicate that a “major tectonic event” occurred about 250 years ago, possibly on the Pombo Fault, which changed the course of the Pombo River flowing through the Lae today.

Although this event was prior to European contact, it is supported by local oral history and other analyzes of elevation data taken from across Lae. Questions remain as to whether it was a single major event, or a series of minor events over an extended period.

Either way, being able to check for activity on the Bumbu fault will raise the Lae earthquake risk to a new level.

future work

The Lae Earthquake Risk Project is ongoing. In addition to more GPS measurements of ground motion, it will include the construction of earthquake monitoring stations in Lae, and advanced satellite-based radar analysis. The latter should provide a more detailed picture of the active fault sectors.

Once we know the active parts that can produce earthquakes, we can begin to estimate the intensity of vibration that these earthquakes may cause in Lae — and what effects they may have on the city’s built environment.

We hope this will provide specific guidance for the construction of new buildings in Lae, and the strengthening of existing ones. These are the most important steps that can be taken to reduce the impact of future earthquakes.

Read more: Earthquakes are no stranger to Australia, but our planning policies haven’t adapted

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://theconversation.com/not-if-but-when-unless-papua-new-guinea-prepares-now-the-next-big-earthquake-could-wreak-havoc-in-lae-185708 The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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