Jokowi breaks ASEAN pessimism at LCS?

The controversial stagnation of the South China Sea (LCS) is considered to continue to occur even though, in the 36th ASEAN Summit series recently, the countries of Southeast Asia have agreed to adopt an attitude firmer with regard to aggressive Chinese maneuvers. Indonesia’s seemingly passive role in this issue is quite questionable when President Joko Widodo is considered the best key to resolving the dispute. Is it?

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TApart from that, China is the culprit of the impression of helplessness of many countries, including the countries of Southeast Asia which are members of the ASEAN cooperation organizations, when dealing with interests from the country of the bamboo curtain.

This tone of pessimism even continued to emerge after Vietnam led ASEAN attitude the most difficult organization linked to tensions in the South China Sea (LCS), shared by other member countries, including Indonesia.

China’s dispute with several countries in the LCS erases the impression of the helplessness of the nations of Southeast Asia when, at the 36th ASEAN summit last week, the maximum capacity that finally emerged of the coalition of Southeast Asian countries was limited only to strengthening the position at the LCS with a declaration of attitude which is based on the 1982 convention of international maritime law (UNCLOS).

No wonder Mark Valencia is his writing at the Lowy Institute titled Little change in the South China Sea after the ASEAN summit said that regardless of ASEAN’s stance on the LCS issue, it would end without results and would continue to turn on the stagnation of uncertainty.

China then remained impassive and seemed to test Vietnam, which is incidentally is the leader of ASEAN this year, while remaining active in military maneuvers in the Paracels Islands disputed between the two countries. In fact, lately, China has held a large-scale military exercise in the region for five days since July 1.

Separately, there are four ASEAN countries that have lived for a long time argue with claims nine dash line China on the LCS. In addition to Vietnam with regard to the Paracel Islands, there are disputes over the Spratly Islands and the Scarborough Shoal Islands which are complicated not only by China, but also involving other ASEAN countries, namely Vietnam , the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam.

Anyway, the impression dead end what appears to have happened and should continue to harm these ASEAN countries is considered to have options and a ray of hope to resolve with the best solution for all parties.

In this case, only Indonesia, through President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), is considered to have a vital capacity to realize this hope, what is this capacity?

The magic of historic supremacy

Before examining the capacities that President Jokowi can maximize to neutralize the tension in the LCS, it is necessary to absorb the justification of the reasons for which Indonesia must intervene and play an active role in the direction and the taking into account common interests of ASEAN.

Factor of importance because the largest country in Southeast Asia also has a relationship with the interests of Indonesia in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of the waters of the North Natuna which is often spotted by maneuvers based sure nine dash line China. It also reinforces why Indonesia should be proactive in representing ASEAN on the LCS issue.

Stephen M. Walt in his writing entitled Building alliances and balancing global power describes the factors that influence the country’s balance decision (balancing) or at the end (group movement) the power, domination and maneuver of a country over a particular area. These factors namely overall power, close power, offensive power, and offensive intentions.

In this case, President Jokowi can maximize overall power or global power, which in this context is seen not only as linked to the resources and physical capabilities of a country, but can also be seen as based on the fundamental strength of historical claims.

Indonesia itself appears to be the only country that has the power to balance China’s stubborn LCS stubbornness in all land claims based on historic precedents.

China founded claim unilateral this nine dash line at the LCS, they should have been based on historical aspects of power that had even collapsed long ago, from the Qing dynasty, the Ming dynasty, to the Yuan dynasty.

Although compared to what Vietnam did at the last ASEAN summit, Indonesia is considered to be more relevant, armed with historical claims that have been accepted by most countries in the world through formulation brilliant on the borders of the territorial sea for modern island nations in the 1957 Djuanda Declaration which became the precursor to the 1982 international convention on the law of the sea of ​​UNCLOS.

Comparison is clearly evaluated to confirm the superiority of Indonesia’s claims which, on the other hand, also seem to be more acceptable aspects justiceat the global level, while being the basis for the settlement of existing territorial disputes.

Then, it can also be a reflection for President Jokowi who, historically, thanks to the success of the Declaration of Djuanda, Indonesia could break, separate and manage well the priority interests of national sovereignty and state dependence. or other forces at the time. Even not only for Indonesia itself, but it can also benefit the national interests of other countries.

Even if the word was faced with overall power physically, President Jokowi doesn’t seem to have to worry if he can properly monitor and map the LCS forces at the moment. In addition to being deemed supported by ASEAN countries, Indonesia’s leadership in the context of the current LCS will receive the blessing and support of the United States (United States) who have other interests. to reduce China.

How not, around 60% Power the United States Sea is pending in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly around the current LCS. It is recognized that the Pentagon aims to neutralize the extreme maneuvers of the Panda country in these waters incidentally there is a lot of interests US in it.

In exploring the constructive implications of the direction that President Jokowi can initiate, how concrete is the possibility of the above scenario?

Just the will?

One thing that at first glance is clearly hampered in the concrete execution of President Jokowi’s leadership at the regional level, including in ASEAN in the context of the LCS, when it comes to Chinese interests is the result of excessive dependence.

Neil Richardson in Foreign policy and economic dependence sets out a premise that when a country’s dependence on other countries is nadi mainly in the form of savings and investment, will always lead to limiting conclusions the diversity or the diversity and flexibility of the country’s dependent foreign policy.

Summary of the dependence that Richardson means above is not only known by Indonesia, but also from other ASEAN countries. This is what resents the countries at issue in LCS when they discover that the facts they face could be the biggest investors in the country.

However, this does not necessarily become an absolute justification when thinking about the precedents historical the determination of Indonesia’s struggle in the Declaration of Djuanda which remained fierce and ultimately succeeded, even if it was undeniable that the republic at that time also had a great economic dependence on world powers such as United States.

Furthermore, President Jokowi’s commitment during this period was to prioritize priority ASEAN leadership and diplomacy of sovereignty have relevance and momentum in the current context of the LCS.

However, the lack of concrete executions on the part of President Jokowi has so far been seen as the basis of the skepticism and pessimism of any party, including the public, which had been raised from the start.

Several factors are considered to be upstream and make the execution scenario null. First in the absence of any indication of President Jokowi’s signs leading to the action of directing ASEAN into the LCS. Second, the inferior perception that Indonesia’s negotiating strength and power have nothing to do with China.

Finally, indications of the absence of a qualified negotiator in foreign policy appear behind President Jokowi to orchestrate diplomacy of sovereignty, like the era of the struggle for the Juanda Declaration earlier.

However, at this point and with a series of constructive perspectives that existed before, nothing was impossible for President Jokowi to restore the glory of Indonesian maritime diplomacy if he had a strong determination and did not hesitate to take various risks. . This is our hope together. (J61)

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