Israeli Geologists: $10 Billion Needed to Strengthen Buildings Before the Next Big Earthquake

Government needs plan to boost 800,000 buildings and critical infrastructure before it’s too late, experts warn

Israel could be hit by a massive earthquake at any moment that would see thousands of buildings collapse unless it invests billions of dollars in reinforcing old buildings across the country.

According to Dr. Itai Korzon, a seismologist at the Israel Geological Survey, the government should invest $10 billion to strengthen buildings and infrastructure built before 1980.

They have to “dig deep into their pockets and come up with a $10-billion-not a million-billion-dollar plan that would boost construction, hospitals, schools, all very old buildings where a lot of people live,” Curzon told The Media Line. “This is something the government should do.”

Israel lies on the Syrian-African Rift, with the Dead Sea Rift being the main source of seismic activity.

One of 120 sensors stationed around Israel as part of the TRUAA earthquake early warning system. (Alex Schwartzberg / Vadim Geller)

Although it is currently impossible to predict exactly when or where the next major earthquake will occur, historically the country has experienced such an event once per century on average.

The last major earthquake occurred in 1927, killing nearly 300 people and causing great damage to Jerusalem, Jericho, and other cities.

Curzon warned that “this will happen somewhere between Eilat and Metula, at the Dead Sea rift or at the Carmel rift.” “It will happen and we have to prepare for that moment.”

Curzon said the $10 billion construction plan could be extended over several years in order to ease the economic burden. It represents a much smaller sum than what Israel would have to spend in the aftermath of a major earthquake if it did nothing to prepare.

Dr.. Itai Korzon, a seismologist at the Israel Geological Survey. (Dario Sanchez / The Media Line)

Reconstruction costs in Turkey, for example, are expected to amount to more than $34 billion in direct physical damage, according to World Bank estimates. A report published by the Turkish Business and Business Confederation put that figure much higher, at $84 billion.

In Israel, the director of the Earthquake Preparedness Committee, Amir Yahav, recently warned a parliamentary committee that earthquake damage would cost the country $41 billion and that prevention would be a much cheaper alternative.

For its part, the Ministry of Education said that about 1,600 schools are at risk of collapsing due to a major earthquake, and only 87 have been reinforced. Meanwhile, Haim Pepes, head of the Center for Local Government, told lawmakers earlier this month that nearly 800,000 housing units are at risk and require an urgent budget from the state to prevent them from collapsing in the event of an earthquake.

Curzon said not much has been done yet to prepare for the big event.

“Earthquakes do not kill, buildings do,” he said. “I really hope I don’t see the same pictures [in Israel that we saw in Turkey]But still, when I look at the situation, I say there will be a magnitude 6 or 6.5 event here and that will be enough to cause very significant damage in Israel in life and construction,” Curzon asserted. “It will be a big mess.”

Currently, Israel’s first line of defense is an earthquake early warning system called TRUAA.

Launched in 2017, their system relies on a network of 120 sensors across the country to monitor the ground in real time and detect even the smallest tremors.

Dr.. Hila Navon, a seismologist with the Israel Geological Survey. (Dario Sanchez / The Media Line)

“This system works similarly to the Iron Dome missile defense system,” Dr. Hila Navon, a seismologist with the Israel Geological Survey, told The Media Line. “Once an earthquake starts, within three seconds we can send an alert about its location and strength. This gives people some time [to prepare] Before the appearance of the most destructive seismic waves, which are most likely to cause damage. The amount of time people have depends on the location and magnitude of the earthquake.”

While TRUAA can quickly deliver information to the public, it cannot predict where, when, or how strong an earthquake will be.

“In order to predict an earthquake, we need three basic pieces of data: we need to know where it will happen, when it will happen, and how big it will be,” Navon specified. In Israel and in the world, we still do not have the ability to predict these three things.

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