UCR professors weigh earthquake in Syria and Turkey

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On February 6, 2023, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck along the Syrian border. About 9 hours later, another jet of magnitude 7.5 arrived. Turkey has two major faults, the East and North Anatolia faults, making it one of the world’s most seismically active regions. The earthquakes, along with pre-existing conditions in the region, caused an increase in political and economic strife in the region.

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), from the research they conducted, the fatality rate for earthquakes is estimated at around 10,000 to 100,000 people, with current deaths reported at around 50,000, as well as economic losses estimated at $10,000 to $100,000 million. Which accounts for about 1-10% of Turkey’s GDP. In addition, 47,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed by earthquakes.

Turkey experienced the Izmit earthquake in 1999 that killed about 15,000 people and destroyed many buildings. As a result of this earthquake, Turkey implemented a building code to help mitigate future earthquake events. However, in many cases of structures falling down in recent earthquakes, the reason has been that this law was not enforced. It has been speculated that the reason for the weak enforcement is that the government will introduce a construction amnesty, allowing structures to be built without requiring a safety certificate, and that as many as 75,000 buildings have been granted this amnesty in southern Turkey. Apartments built last year that were said to be in compliance with these building codes but were not able to withstand the earthquake.

Current Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been accused of causing some aid delays in the region. The Presidency of Disaster and Emergency Management (AFAD) in Turkey is responsible for approving the aid that comes to the region and is a branch of the Justice and Development Party (AKP). It has been speculated that since Erdoğan belongs to the Justice and Development Party, the AFAD administration prioritizes his political affairs. It is reported that the Disaster and Emergency Department is responsible for the response on the sixth of February. This limitation of authority caused delays as assistance could not be deployed until they received direct orders from Disaster and Emergency Management.

Technically, there are many similarities between the earthquakes in Syria and Turkey when compared to the earthquakes in California. According to Professor of Geophysics, David Oglesby, “The San Andreas fault here that runs at Cape Mendocino in northern California, all the way up to the Salton Sea is also a slip fault (like the one in Turkey).”

Associate Professor of Geology, Heather Ford, states, “There’s a comprehensive report out there that shows what would happen if you had a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Southern California. So, same size, similar kind of plate boundary, similar kind of erratic behavior. They attracted social scientists who They understand the impact on social systems and then finally talk to policy makers to discuss what measures can be enacted to reduce the impact.And on the economic side, the estimate is that in Southern California, which is a very high productivity area, we expect the impact of this earthquake to be about $2 billion with Nearly 1,800 deaths.”

However, unlike Syria and Turkey, Californians would be better prepared in the event of an earthquake. As Ford says, “A big part of preventing things from becoming catastrophic is mitigation. One thing is that we can design our buildings and infrastructure to withstand strong ground motion. California has a series of regulations and laws and other kinds of government directives that require us to do things.” To make our infrastructure and our buildings more amorphous. We’ve designed some of our other infrastructure, gas lines, other things, you know, trying to avoid cross bugs. When we do cross bugs, they try to design them in a way that will kind of mitigate some of that effect. Something Another we have and it’s relatively new, is that we have ShakeAlert in California.”

ShakeAlert is a key tool in preparing for earthquakes. Although we don’t have the technology to predict when or where an earthquake will happen, what can be done is issue an early warning. As seismic waves travel through the earth, seismic stations established around the area pick up the signals of these waves. They listen on the ground 24/7 and when they pick up a sudden irregularity, they calculate the approximate amount and that information is sent back to the station. If the threat is deemed high enough, people with ShakeAlert on their phones are sent an alert and given less than a minute or so to prepare for an upcoming earthquake.

One earthquake also has the potential to trigger other earthquakes as well, and in most cases these weaker earthquakes are known as aftershocks. However, this is not always the case. According to Oglesby, “There is a possibility that the subsequent earthquake that follows it may be greater than the original earthquake,” in which case naming conventions help measure the intensity of earthquakes.

There are ways to prepare for earthquakes and aftershocks. Funning states that “there’s a chance you won’t have running water or gas or electricity at the time. We’d probably say a gallon of water per person is enough for a day of survival and you might want to plan for several days. I mean the advice is usually three days, but personally I’d get more water than that. I’d go a week without water, like seven gallons of water for every person in your house.”

Funning also recommends that in addition, you may want to carry canned or non-perishable foods, as well as some ways to open the containers they come in. Another thing that is helpful is keeping all supplies in one easily accessible part of the house, collecting items such as fire extinguishers, first aid kits, earthquake kits, space blankets, etc., as well as finding accessible ways to shut off water or gas lines. In the event of ruptures in the area.

The best thing to do at times like these to help mitigate the impact of an earthquake is to prepare well and stay well informed about earthquakes. This can be done by keeping up with alerts through ShakeAlert, getting emergency packages, and reading up on various sites like the USGS, EERI, GEER, and IRIS. There are also classes offered by UCR’s Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences such as GEO 004 covering natural hazards and disasters and GEO 008 about Earth Country for those who want to learn more about safety and information from earthquakes.

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