News: Covid’s slow data demands a smarter approach: Max Nisen

(Bloomberg) – Monitoring and therefore controlling Covid-19 has been ridiculously difficult, in part due to delays in data from reality. This happens because each link in the disease chain is long. Exposure to coronavirus takes time to appear as a disease, then it takes time to get a positive covid test result, and it takes time to report the result. And so on. Delays are characteristic of the outbreak of infection, but are particularly long with this virus.

Also, the new coronavirus does not cause symptoms immediately or consistently, so bacteria can spread quietly. In the United States, state-specific public health strategies, inconsistent federal support, and fragmented healthcare systems with old registration systems make it even harder to spot the epidemic ..

The unfortunate result is that many state leaders underestimate the previous issue. Increasing numbers of cases in California have placed significant new restrictions on indoor activities. This indicates that at least one state is looking at what is in front of it. Others are still too reluctant to act.

Covid was difficult to manage in the United States from the beginning due to the lack of evidence. But since the resumption began, the problem has been exacerbated in several ways. The governor had to find a way without a solid national orientation. The only clear message from Washington was to encourage restart as soon as possible. The guidelines issued by the White House’s Anti-Coronavirus Headquarters were wise but widely ignored. They advise the state to monitor the data and make sure that the number of cases and the rate of positive tests are reduced by 14 days before taking steps to get out of custody. This two-week benchmark is unquestionable, but it was recommended as a precautionary measure to ensure that each phase of resumption can continue without worries or growth. Two weeks is sufficient to account for data delays.

However, some states did not wait long enough to reach the first threshold. Some people quickly accepted delayed data without robust contact tracking or reduced infection rates.

Then, even if the number of cases and test-positive rates began to rise, hospitalization rates were still low and mortality rates were lower, so state leaders said they shouldn’t have to worry. The first of these data points is catching up, and the slowest metric, daily mortality, is catching up in some states, boosting national data significantly.

The updated test delays will make the outlook for the near future quite dark. Testing giant Quest Diagnostics Inc. reports an average response time of 7 days for non-priority testing. This suggests that an increased outbreak will occur again.

Positive rates exceed 10% in more than 12 states. Worse, they report continued difficulty in obtaining evidence, making it more difficult to identify, report, and isolate infected individuals.

California’s new limits on indoor activity recognize the delay in covid data. The current number of infections in the states, although not as high as in other states, reflects the behavior of Californians two weeks ago. And new mitigations take time to reduce numbers. It should be kept in mind that in other states, the more outbreaks there are, the more infections there are, resulting in longer data delays and the more flexible the restrictions on movement and behavior, the longer the changes will take. Early action will result in faster results.

The new California rules will not be fully captive like in spring, but they still hinder the state’s economy. However, allowing uncontrolled spread is equally harmful, making it impossible to safely open a school. Reversal slows case growth, gives time to catch up on trial capacity, and allows the state to schedule more patient resumptions. And sustainable.

More states may need to follow California’s leadership, especially during the flu season. This disappoints those hoping for linear recovery, but it helps all states better understand how the covid data chain works, and why careful monitoring is essential. An alternative is to continue the escape from the pandemic with a hope-only strategy rather than a data-based strategy.

Original Note: Slow Covid-19 Data Calls for a Smarter Approach: Max Nisen

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