Scientists who study earthquakes may know why the “big earthquake” hasn’t hit California yet

A recent study suggests that the lack of major earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault in southern California may be due to the drying up of the Salton Sea.

In a new study published in Nature this week, scientists at San Diego State University and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography aimed to explain why the southern part of the San Andreas Fault had not experienced an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater in about three centuries — way past what scientists expected.

A seismologist uses a pen to mark the initial shock waves of an earthquake plotted on a seismograph. Charles Aurier/Getty Images

“We know that this part of the fault has accumulated enough tectonic strain to produce such an event,” Riley J. Hill, a doctoral candidate who was the study’s lead author, told the Los Angeles Times.

“This area actually poses the greatest seismic hazard in all of California because it can severely damage the Los Angeles metropolitan area,” he explained.

Scientists believe that the lack of sudden large amounts of floodwater entering the Salton Sea since its formation more than a century ago may have contributed to the reduction in seismic activity.

The Salton Sea lies about 150 miles southeast of Los Angeles along the southern San Andreas fault line at Riverside.

The researchers said they found a relationship between the presence of the lake and the large earthquakes in the area. They studied earthquake activity when Lake Salton, Lake Cahuila, filled with water over the 800 years to 1733.

“Looking at the history of the earthquake and its relationship to the lakes, we realize that most earthquakes occurred when the lake was present,” study co-author Thomas Rockwell told The Times.

Scientists believe that the filling and emptying of lakes may act as a trigger mechanism for earthquakes.

However, experts warn that the drought caused by the earthquake will not last.

Hill said the next earthquake in the San Andreas region is expected to be larger because of the stress accumulated over the past three centuries, according to Phys.org.

Their study also highlights other cases around the world where filling reservoirs or injecting wastewater has been linked to increased seismic activity. Water changes pore pressure in rocks, making fault lines more likely to rupture.

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