Health
Social distance alone cannot delay the spread of coronaviruses. Other precautions should be taken
A moderate shutdown may be more effective for society than a more complete complete shutdown if the social distance “alone” is carried out for more than two weeks.
Scientists have found that increasing social distance alone does not succeed in slowing the spread of COVID-19. This could help make better decisions in countries where a second wave of pandemics is expected.
“The more conventional wisdom, the greater the social distance and the longer the duration, the less likely the disease will be,” said Rajan Chakraberty, a co-author of a study at the University of Washington in St. Louis, USA. Said.
According to research, published in journal chaos, Strategies involving social distances should be combined with other steps.
“But if you have social distances implemented with contact tracking, isolation, and testing, that’s true. Without them, you would cause a second wave,” Chakraberty said. It was
Another co-author of the study, Peyton Beehler, said that if social distance was the only measure, then it would have to be done very carefully to fully realize its benefits.
Their epidemiological model used data collected by Johns Hopkins University in the United States between March 18 and March 29. This period is characterized by a sharp increase in COVID-19 and the onset of social distance in most US states.
By adjusting the model using these datasets, the authors say that they are now able to analyze fair results that are unaffected by large distances.
The model also includes details on how people of different ages interact and how they affect the spread of the infection.
“I would probably have done a better job if social distance had been introduced before,” Chakraberty said.
In the short run, scientists said that it was associated with increasing distances and less demand for hospitals, adding that it could last up to two weeks.
Later, they said that the time spent at distance did not significantly benefit the demand of the hospital.
The researchers said that societies need to increase social distance exponentially in order to linearly reduce demand for hospitals.
They said this would lead to reduced returns.
Scientists have explained that society’s lesser benefit to hospitals will be longer the longer it spends its social distance.
Researchers say that a moderate shutdown, for example 50-70%, may be more effective to society than a more severe complete shutdown if the’alone’ social distance is carried out for more than two weeks .. Maximum reduction of medical demand.
Other strategies to flatten the curve include intermittent behaviour, alternating strict social separation and no separation to reduce the burden on the hospital, the study noted. ing.
According to the model, the most efficient distance-to-distance ratio is 5 to 1, which means that every five days at home there is no one-day distance.
If societies behaved this way, the researchers said they could have reduced the burden on the hospital by 80%.
“Using a social distance alone to bend a curve is like slowing down the front of a raging wildfire without extinguishing a burning ember,” Chakraberty said.
“When they’re blown, they’re waiting for their own fire to start,” he said, but his team’s models used data collected in March, so I cannot tell you the strategy.
However, Chakraberty added that we might be able to inform our actions if we encounter a similar situation in the future.
“Next time, we need to act faster and be more proactive about contact tracking and testing and separation,” Chakraberty said.
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