Why Boris Johnson changed strategy to fight coronavirus | Political News

It only took you four days to go from a request to stay home if you were feeling bad about a call from the Prime Minister to suspend our lives for weeks or even months.

Starting next weekend, elderly, vulnerable and pregnant women will be invited to return home for 12 weeks.

There is already a huge dramatic shift in the government's response, driven by changing the evidence and modeling the spread and severity of COVID-19.

"We had to speed up," so a senior government official, aware of certain planning decisions, informed me on Monday evening.

"We thought we could postpone these social distancing measures by a week and push back the social shield (the elderly and vulnerable asking to stay at home for three months) a week after that, but we had to move on. "

This is a global pandemic which now requires a war effort from all of us, with the UK now clearly on the same path as Italy, Spain and France as it begins to put in place social closings and the isolation of homes.

More extreme measures – imposed curfews, school closings, travel bans – are all "under consideration".

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The dramatic change in the pace of government can be explained by a document released Monday evening by researchers at Imperial College London, whose modeling of the disease has fueled the government's strategy to manage the virus.

In a nutshell, the change of pace and policy is designed to save more lives – perhaps a quarter of a million more lives – as the government switches between the "mitigation model" – trying to slow down spread of the virus to the "suppression model" "- try to reverse pandemic growth.

Imperial researchers conclude in their article that trying to slow the spread of the virus rather than trying to suppress the disease will overwhelm the NHS, with an ICU demand exceeded eight times and 250,000 deaths.

They've come to this conclusion in the past few days as they look at the likely demand for intensive care beds based on the experience of Italy – a country that has three weeks ahead of us on the curve.

The latest evidence suggests that 30% of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 will require intensive care. The previous estimates were too low.

So we spend this week trying to slow the spread of the disease trying to stop – or stop – the spread.

Imperial researchers have concluded that this is the "only viable strategy at the moment."

But they also recognize that it comes at a huge cost: "The social and economic effects of the measures that are necessary to achieve this political goal will be profound. Many countries have already adopted such measures, but even these countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (like the UK) will have to do so imminently. "

With a multitude of changes this week, there is even more to come.

Drastic measures will save lives – perhaps more than 250,000, according to Imperial estimates.

But it will also have a profound impact on our communities and our economy.

Saving lives and stopping the spread of the disease could mean that we all have to suspend our lives for a year or even longer while we wait for a vaccine.

So, when the Prime Minister described what awaits us as the greatest challenge we have faced as a nation since the Second World War, it was no exaggeration.

All the compromises are horrible and the sacrifices required of us all immense.

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