The Labor earthquake may be a victory for Starmer, but it will break troubling new ground for Farage Jonathan Friedland

Where lettuce leads, can Labor follow? Can Keir Starmer's party repeat the success of Homemade Vegetables and defeat Liz Truss in her own constituency?

The question itself once seemed laughable. Truss won South West Norfolk in 2019 with nearly 70% of the vote and a majority of more than 26,000 votes. However, in its latest analysis, Ipsos has put the seat in place as a “negligence”. Had the former prime minister been ousted, even briefly, on the Fourth of July, it would have been the mother of all Portillo moments; She will forever be the embodiment of the Conservatives' epic defeat. The possibility of imagining such a scenario tells us a lot about the current state of our politics – and what might come next.

The threat facing Truss is simple enough and it is the same threat that is putting dozens of Conservatives at risk in previously safe seats across the country: a split centre-right vote, torn between Conservatives and Reformists, which may only allow Labor – which came in… Third place Conservatives and Ukip in South West Norfolk in 2015 – crossing the line. We'll get to the broader phenomenon, but in this case there's another element at work: a gear factor.

“I'm not going to vote Tory, because that's who she is,” Carrie Batty put it, as she and her husband Chris enjoyed some long-awaited summer sun on a park bench in central Swaffham earlier this week. “Because of the chaos she has created for our children with her amazing budget.” The sarcasm was stinging, as Patty, a 62-year-old retiree, told me about the mortgage payments her two children were struggling to make. She has always voted Tory, “but not now, because I don't want Liz Truss as an MP. She has never apologised. She has never taken responsibility for anything.”

Others admitted their surprise that Truss was allowed to run as a Conservative Party candidate, given the damage she had caused. To show me what they're up against, a senior Norfolk Tory scrutinized a recent front-page photo of the Eastern Daily Press. Its headline is: “Truss: I'm not the worst Prime Minister ever.”

As elsewhere, some disaffected Tories from south-west Norfolk are moving to Labour, but most are considering two other options: the sofa – several of them told me they would stay home on July 4 – or vote for reform. By his own admission, her local candidate, Toby McKenzie, a former teacher now involved in the Department for Education, is not waging an all-out war for those votes – he is a newcomer to politics, and has a day job, so most campaigning is limited to weekends – but Previously habitual conservatives come to him anyway. “They don't want to vote Conservative anymore,” he says. When Nigel Farage jumped into the race, things took off: 30 new people joined in one day, and McKenzie suddenly found he had a team of volunteers.

The Farage factor is undeniable. People called him “the subversive,” and they meant it warmly. “Love him or hate him, he has charisma,” one woman told me. You might think that the country has had enough of turmoil over the past decade, or that the charisma would have lost its appeal given how things went last time – with a famous prime minister who partied while the country obeyed and broke the rules he set – but apparently… no. Instead, Farage remains a force capable of generating excitement, and a commodity in short supply in this election.

For now, this is another lucky break in a string of good fortune for Labour, which is currently experiencing a series of events hotter than a Tory official in a betting shop. Reform may win the odd seat for itself, but it looks like it will capture enough Tory votes to ensure that improbably large swaths of the country are painted red on the Fourth of July.

For Labour, this possibility is the stuff of fantasy. Forget 1997 or even 1945. An Ipsos seat-by-seat poll would see Labor win the largest single-party majority in modern British political history, not so much a landslide as an earthquake. This is one reason why Labor veterans in particular are skeptical about the polls – partly because they have been torched before, partly because loss is Labour's default and defeat seems more natural than victory, and partly because few recognize the wave of Red with excitement on the doorstep.

But suppose that happened, and thanks to this split on the right, the Conservative Party would be wiped out two weeks from now. Naturally, Labor's hearts will rise, as will many others: the Conservatives will get the punishment they richly deserve. However, behind that shiny silver lining will lie a cloud.

The scenario that occurred in Canada in 1993 would become highly plausible, with the completely crushed Conservative Party displaced and eventually swallowed up by a far-right party called Reform. Farage has been clear about that game plan: push the Conservatives aside now, and become Labour's rival in 2029. The foot soldiers fit this strategy. In south-west Norfolk, McKenzie was optimistic about letting Labor win this time: “It's a question of going through pain before we're ready to take charge.”

Such talk is hardly a stretch. Such acquisitions are already happening. Let us look at France, where Marine Le Pen overtook the Gaullists. Or the United States, where the old Republican Party has been absorbed, in all but name, into the “Make America Great Again” movement led by Donald Trump. There is no reason to believe that it could not happen here or that Britain is somehow immune to the virus of nationalist populism. We know from the 2016 referendum vote that this is not the case.

This is certainly the category – and the company – to which Farage belongs. It's not just that he's a Trump fan; He is Trumpian to the core. Note his reaction this week to the revelations of a series of reformist candidates, variously outed as conspiracy theorists or, in one case, as BNP supporters. Farage did not take responsibility; Of course he didn't. Instead, he blamed the audit agency appointed by the reform institution to discover these corrupt elements. But he did not allege mere incompetence. No, having learned from the great Orange Lord across the Atlantic, Farage portrayed himself, absurdly, as a victim of “establishment sabotage”.

For now, as with Trump, Farage is getting away with it. But this must stop. Carrie Batty, whose family is still reeling from the Truss mini-budget for 2022, needs to hear again how Farage has reacted to this financial event. He tweeted: “Today was the Tories' best budget since 1986.” Those who lament that Britain is becoming a poorer country must be reminded every day that it was Farage who pushed for decades to take the step that cost us dearly: Brexit. Those who want to reject the Conservative Party will have to be persuaded that the Conservatives' fundamental flaws are shared by potential replacements.

So, yeah, it would be exciting if the likes of Liz Truss were dispatched within 10 days or so. But if it comes thanks to the rise of Farage and Farage, it will not only be a triumph, but a warning as well.

Jonathan Freedland is a columnist for The Guardian

Guardian Newsroom: Election results special Friday 5 July 2024 Speakers: Gaby Hinsliffe, John Creese, Hugh Muir, Jonathan Freedland and Zoe Williams Programmer: Bridget Mohammed

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