Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to become a hurricane

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify into a hurricane and hit Texas on Monday with potential impacts including rainfall, storm flooding, strong winds and tornadoes.

Current status: Beryl is centered in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and is moving west-northwest. Wind shear, dry air and land interaction with Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula have caused Beryl to become disorganized. However, the storm is expected to intensify on its way to the Texas coast Sunday through Monday.

Below is a look at the current location, information and satellite for Beryl based on the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane and storm warnings are in effect:

• Hurricane Watch: From the mouth of the Rio Grande north to San Luis Pass, Texas. This means hurricane conditions (winds 75+ mph) are possible through Monday morning in these locations.
• Watch Surge: from the mouth of the Rio Grande north to High Island, Texas, including Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This means that life-threatening storm flooding is possible.

Here is the latest predicted path and intensity forecast for Beryl: Beryl's forecast path has been gradually shifting to the right (or east) over the last day or so. Beryl's landfall as a hurricane is now forecast to occur anywhere from near the Houston and Galveston areas south to near Brownsville.

This change in the forecast path is caused by Beryl heading further north than originally expected. Over the next day or so, Beryl will turn further northwest toward a weakness in subtropical high pressure over the southern United States and due to influence from an upper-level low pressure system located west of Beryl.

Here's a look at the overall timeline based on the latest NHC forecast.

• This weekend: Beryl is expected to move northwest through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast. The greatest chance for continued intensification into a hurricane will begin on Sunday.
• By late Sunday: Preparations along the Texas coast for hurricane and/or tropical storm conditions should be completed.
• Monday: Landfall with damaging winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain and a few tornadoes are expected along the Texas coast.

(MORE: What the forecast cone does and doesn't mean)

Potential US impacts:

Harmful wind threat: The most likely area for damaging winds is along the central Texas coast, but that may change in future updates of Beryl's forecast track. Everyone in the hurricane watch area should prepare for hurricane force winds and/or tropical storm force winds until the forecast becomes more certain.

These winds will arrive late Sunday through early Monday, then continue into Monday. Winds may cause power outages and tree damage in some areas.

Storm flooding, high current and landslide threats: Beryl will contribute to rising water levels this weekend along the coast, with the storm's peak reaching along and north and east of the center's landfall on Monday. Storm surge inundation may be 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels if the crest of the surge reaches high tide.

This can flood low-lying coastal areas, as we saw with Tropical Storm Alberto in these areas in June.

Beryl will also generate high surf and rip currents along the Texas coast this weekend before the storm arrives. The current threat will extend further east along the northern Gulf Coast.

Keep this in mind if you have weekend beach plans during these coastal areas.

Flooding from rainfall is possible: A series of heavy showers will occur near the coast and inland over East Texas and other parts of the South during the first half of the new week.

Locations from the mid-Texas coast to east Texas could see 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized totals of up to 15 inches not out of the question.

Here is the general timeline showing where there is an increased threat of excessive rainfall that could cause flooding.

-Sunday late-Sunday night: Texas coast.

-Monday-Monday night: Middle and upper Texas coast in eastern Texas, western Louisiana, and the ArkLaTex region.

A tornado threat is expected: Tropical cyclones that make landfall often produce a tornado threat in the rainbands as they near the coast and move inland. Here are some possible tornadoes from Beryl, based on the latest forecast from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

-Sunday-Sunday night: Middle and Upper Texas Coasts.

-Monday night-Monday: Upper Texas coast to western Louisiana.

Briefing

It began on Friday, June 28, when the National Hurricane Center began advisories for Tropical Depression Two just over 1,200 miles east of Barbados. Six hours later it became Tropical Storm Beryl.

By the next afternoon it was already Hurricane Beryl. By Sunday, June 30, the first recorded in the Atlantic basin in June. This is a depression for cats. 4 quick bursts of intensification in just 48 hours.

(MORE: Beryl's early season records were broken)

After undergoing a replacement of the eye wall and passing between Barbados and Tobago, Beryl it made landfall just after 11 a.m. EDT on Monday, July 1 over the Grenadan island of Carriacou with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Among only two other Category 4 hurricanes in history near Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Beryl was the strongest of wind speed.

Destruction was widespread on the island of Carriacou, with vegetation stripped and many homes damaged or destroyed.

Downed trees, flooded roads, power outages and storm flooding were reported in the Grenadines, Grenada, Barbados and Tobago.

As its eyewall passed south of Barbados, a 69 mph gust was recorded early Monday at Grantley Adams International Airport, the island's main airport. Grenada experienced wind gusts of up to 121 mph as the center of Beryl tracked north of the island. A gust to 64 mph was also reported in St. Lucia.

Just 12 hours after making landfall on the South Wind Island, Beryl became the Atlantic Basin's earliest Category 5 storm on record on the evening of July 1. The next day, its winds reached 165 mph, Strongest July hurricane by wind speed in the Atlantic basin.

Beryl hit the south coast of Jamaica on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and damaging winds. Winds gusted up to 81 mph at Norman Manley International Airport on a peninsula south of the nation's capital, Kingston, on Wednesday afternoon. damaging part of the roof. This was the strongest hurricane to hit Jamaica in almost 17 years. since Hurricane Dean in 2007.

As Beryl made its closest approach, winds gusted to 54 mph on Grand Cayman Island on July 4.

Beryl made landfall near Tulum, Mexico, early Friday morning with winds estimated at 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was the peninsula's strongest hurricane since Hurricane Delta in October 2020.

Wind gusts of up to 81 mph were seen south of Playa del Carmen in the core of Beryl on Friday morning. A gust of 48 mph was on Isla Mujeres, offshore of Cancun.

MORE AT WEATHER.COM

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