Lori Danger | Mid-Year 2024 Earthquake Report – Times Standard

2024 has been a banner year for a number of natural disasters: heat, the oldest Category 5 hurricane on record, and catastrophic flooding. It’s gratifying to report a moderate earthquake year so far. The six-month earthquake numbers put the planet well below recent averages in a number of categories including magnitude, death toll, and damage. But lower-than-usual numbers don’t mean they’re uninteresting, and there are always sequences worth highlighting.

There were 51 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater, including four with magnitude 7. That makes the first half of 2024 the fourth-lowest six-month total in the past 25 years. Since 2000, the half-year average has been about 80 earthquakes with magnitude 6 and eight earthquakes in the 7 range.

There’s a good reason for these relatively moderate numbers, and it’s not because the Earth’s tectonic engine is slowing down. We’re out of the aftershock windows of major earthquakes. In 2010, we had the 8.7-magnitude earthquake in Chile, followed a little over a year later by the 9.1-magnitude earthquake in Japan. These massive earthquakes caused major changes in regional stress patterns that have caused years of major aftershocks.

Just seven hours into the new year, the biggest earthquake of the year so far was recorded. The 7.5-magnitude quake struck in the Sea of ​​Japan. Most earthquakes in Japan are linked to subduction zones that run along the northeastern and southwestern parts of the island chain.

Most people tend to focus on the compressional part of a subduction zone, where one plate dives beneath another. It was this “leading edge” of a subduction zone that caused the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. But subduction zones are complex beasts and lead to major changes in regional stress patterns. One such change is called back-arc spreading, where the descending plate extends into the land above, creating an extension. The Sea of ​​Japan was formed this way.

The Noto earthquake was not a direct result of extension. As the Sea of ​​Japan opens, it encounters resistance from the ground, creating convergence zones along the western side of Honshu. There are numerous reverse faults along and near the coast that have produced earthquakes of magnitude 7 to 8. The 1993 Okushiri earthquake, with a magnitude of 7.7, in the Sea of ​​Japan, about 360 miles north of the Noto epicenter, was one of my first introductions to tsunami studies.

The Noto earthquake ruptured a 100-mile-long fault, causing some areas to rise 13 feet and move more than 800 feet away from the coast toward the sea. This deformation increased the area of ​​some areas of the Noto Peninsula by nearly two square miles. Like its predecessor in 1993, the earthquake caused strong shaking and a local tsunami, killing 281 people, injuring more than 1,300, and causing damage totaling $17.6 billion. It ranks as the deadliest earthquake of 2024 so far.

Japan has the strictest building codes in the world, and has spent more human and financial resources on preparing for earthquakes and tsunamis than any other country. But why were there casualties? Because all Japanese cities, like California, have old structures that were not built to current codes. A Japanese government assessment found that almost all the damage was to structures built before 1980.

These traditional homes are made of wood and have heavy tile roofs. Because they are so heavy, their structures are resistant to hurricanes but not earthquakes. They are also prone to fire. Dozens of fires broke out after the quake, some from damaged electrical wires, others from falling cooking stoves. Responders were unable to reach some of the largest fires because of damaged roads.

Fires after earthquakes are a problem in both Japan and California, where most housing is made of wood. That was not a problem in the second-largest earthquake of 2024—a 7.4-magnitude quake that struck off the west coast of Taiwan on April 3. The differences between what happened in Taiwan and Japan are striking.

The Hualien earthquake, with its epicenter near Hualien, Taiwan's seventh-largest city, also caused damage and casualties. The impacts (18 deaths, $2.5 million in damage) were much smaller than the Noto earthquake, which was of similar magnitude. Both earthquakes affected densely populated areas, but four times as many people experienced severe to strong ground shaking in Taiwan than in Japan.

The main difference in impacts lies in building stock and construction methods. After the 1999 Taiwan earthquake (2,415 deaths), the country embarked on a campaign to build resilience by enacting strict rules for new construction and requiring many older buildings to be retrofitted. The reliance on concrete, steel and other non-combustible materials greatly limited structural damage. No fires were reported after the quake.

There is an economic incentive in Taiwan not only to build structures that provide safety in the event of an earthquake, but also to continue normal operations without sustaining minor damage from earthquakes. Taiwan is home to the world’s most advanced semiconductors, where manufacturing plants require nanometer-scale precision. After the April earthquake, there were no major shutdowns. Rebuilding structures and infrastructure is expensive. The Taiwan earthquake proved that it was worth the cost.

Neither Japan nor Taiwan received the nod for the most media coverage of an earthquake in 2024. That award went to the Great Tewksbury Earthquake, a magnitude 4.8 earthquake on April 5. The quake was centered in north-central New Jersey, 33 miles north of Trenton. The USGS “Did you feel it?” website posted 183,760 reports of the quake, the most ever reported for an earthquake anywhere in the world. The USGS estimates that more than 42 million Americans felt the quake from Georgia to Montreal and as far west as Iowa and Georgia.

The Tewksbury earthquake wasn't the only anomalous quake of 2024. A 4.0-magnitude quake was recorded off the east coast of Florida and a 3.7-magnitude quake in South Dakota, a reminder that earthquakes can and will happen anywhere.

There are no surprises in the rest of the 2024 U.S. earthquake story. As usual, Alaska had more than twice as many earthquakes as all of the lower 44 states. California slightly leads Texas in potential earthquakes (magnitude 131 to 108 or greater) in the contiguous United States. The largest quakes outside Alaska were a magnitude 5.6 quake on the Blanco Fault off the coast of southern Oregon, a magnitude 5.2 quake off the coast of Crescent City, and a magnitude 5.1 quake in central Oklahoma.

On the North Coast, it’s safe to say that the aftershocks from the 6.4-magnitude Ferndale earthquake of December 2022 have ended, and we’re back to “normal” background levels. That means expecting 3-magnitude aftershocks every month and the occasional 4-magnitude one. Of course, the next big earthquake is looming and could arrive any day now. So, it’s important to follow Taiwan’s example and build resilience before it happens.

Lori Dengler is a professor emeritus of geology at California Polytechnic University Humboldt and an expert on tsunami and earthquake hazards. Have questions or comments about this column, or would you like a free copy of the Living on Shaky Ground preparedness magazine? Leave a message at 707-826-6019 or email us at [email protected].

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