Modi visits Moscow with aim of Russia-China understanding

New Delhi

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Russia on Monday for a two-day visit to consolidate relations at a time when Moscow has deepened ties with New Delhi's arch-rival China.

Analysts in New Delhi say the summit meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for Tuesday will help counter perceptions of a drift in relations with its long-time ally as India builds a closer partnership with the United States.

India's goal is to emphasize that India-Russia relations are important and to ensure that Putin's growing relationship with China does not affect ties with New Delhi, Chintamani Mahapatra, founder of the Kalinga Institute for Indo-Pacific Studies, told VOA.

This is why it is extremely important to continue dialogue with Russia at the highest level, he added.

The summit will be the first since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, an issue on which New Delhi has maintained a neutral stance; it has neither condemned the war nor joined Western sanctions imposed on Moscow.

Although Indian and Russian leaders have held annual summits since 2000, none have taken place since Putin's visit to New Delhi in 2021.

Calling the summit something waiting to happen, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar highlighted the two countries' strong history of collaboration.

Modi's first visit to Russia in five years will be aimed at strengthening a strained relationship, analysts say.

I don't think this will pave the way for a forward-looking or innovative partnership with a lot of new initiatives and new products, Sreeram Chaulia, dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs, told VOA.

Rather, he said, it is about maintaining the relationship, maintaining the existing ties and ensuring that our defense and energy cooperation remains on track.

Despite diversifying its military purchases in recent years, India remains dependent on Russian weapons: about a third of India's defense imports come from Moscow, compared to two-thirds five years ago. Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, concerns have grown about Russia's ability to supply spare parts and munitions.

At the same time, bilateral energy trade has been growing strongly, with India increasing its purchases of cheap Russian oil after the invasion of Ukraine. However, while Moscow's total exports to India amount to $65 billion, India's are only about $4 billion, raising concerns in New Delhi.

“Trade remains unbalanced, which is a priority in our discussions with the Russian side,” Indian External Affairs Minister Vinay Kwatra told reporters while announcing Modi’s visit on Friday. He said India wanted to promote exports in various sectors including agricultural products, technology, pharmaceuticals and services to reduce the deficit.

For Putin, the visit will be important because it will show he is not isolated by Western sanctions, analysts said. Some of them pointed to the nature of his meeting with Modi, which comes as a NATO summit focusing on security issues in Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific region is taking place in Washington on Tuesday.

Russia expects a “very important and comprehensive visit” by Prime Minister Modi, which is so crucial for Russian-Indian relations, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying on Saturday by the Russian news agency Tass.

Analysts in New Delhi say Modi's visit is unlikely to worry Washington, with which India has been strengthening its security partnership amid mutual concerns over China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region. India has so far managed to walk a fine line between the US and Russia, Mahapatra said.

The United States has “some concerns” about India’s engagement with Russia in the military and technological domains, but Washington has confidence in New Delhi to advance the US-India partnership in key areas, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in a virtual briefing on June 26 ahead of the announcement of the India-Moscow summit.

According to analysts in New Delhi, even though India has significantly strengthened its ties with the United States, its hostile neighbourhood makes Russia important in its geostrategic calculations.

The four-year-old military standoff between India and China along their disputed borders, which shows no sign of ending, remains a source of concern for New Delhi.

It is important for India that in case of a conflict between India and China, Russia does not side with China, Mahapatra said. This will happen only if Russia considers India as an important country in its geopolitical calculations.

India will struggle to counterbalance China, however, because of Russia's heavy reliance on Beijing, which has been isolated by the West. During Putin's visit to China in May, the two countries pledged to deepen their partnership, which has intensified since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

We are aware that China will remain Russia's dominant ally, but India wants to ensure that it does not become totally dominant, Chaulia said. We do not want Russia to become a junior partner of China, because then we would be surrounded by adversaries in the entire Eurasian region. So it is in our interest to make Russia stable by all possible means.

After Moscow, Modi will travel to Austria, the first visit by an Indian prime minister in more than four decades.