Could Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump in the presidential race?

WASHINGTON >> She worries Republican donors, enjoys a certain notoriety and the heavyweights of the Democratic Party are beginning to line up behind her.

Vice President Kamala Harris would be the natural successor to President Joe Biden if he bows to mounting pressure and withdraws from the Democratic nomination in the 2024 election, top Democrats say.

Donors, activists and party officials are now asking: Does she have a better chance than Biden of beating Donald Trump? Biden has repeatedly said he will stay in the race.

Harris, 59, a former U.S. senator and California attorney general, would be the first woman to become president of the United States if she were the party's nominee and won the Nov. 5 election. She is the first African-American and Asian-American to serve as vice president.

His three-and-a-half-year tenure in the White House was marked by a lackluster start, staff turnover and early policy portfolios, including Central American migration, that failed to produce major successes.

As recently as last year, many in the White House and on Biden’s campaign team privately worried that Harris would be a liability to the campaign. That has changed dramatically since then, Democratic officials said, as she has made strides on abortion rights and courted younger voters.

SOME POLLS ARE FAVORITE FOR HARRIS

Recent polls suggest Harris could do better than Biden against Trump, the Republican nominee, although she would face a close contest.

A CNN poll released July 2 found voters favoring Trump over Biden by a six-percentage-point margin, 49% to 43%. Harris also trails Trump, 47% to 45%, within the margin of error.

The survey also found that independents support Harris 43% to 40% against Trump, and moderate voters in both parties prefer her 51% to 39%.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll taken after last week's televised debate between Trump and a wavering Biden found Harris and Trump nearly tied, with her taking 42% and him taking 43%.

Among possible alternatives to Biden, only former first lady Michelle Obama, who has never expressed any interest in running, scores higher.

An internal poll shared by the Biden campaign after the debate shows Harris has an equal chance as Biden of beating Trump, with 45% of voters saying they would vote for her compared to 48% for Trump.

Prominent Democrats including U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, the man who played a key role in Biden's 2020 victory; Rep. Gregory Meeks, a New York congressman and senior member of the Congressional Black Caucus; and Summer Lee, a Pennsylvania House Democrat, have signaled that Harris would be the best option to lead the ticket if Biden chooses to step down.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has also privately signaled the same thing to lawmakers, a congressional aide said.

Harris is taken so seriously that two Republican donors told Reuters they would prefer Trump to face Biden rather than her.

“I would rather Biden stay in office” than be replaced by Harris, said Pauline Lee, a Trump fundraiser in Nevada after the June 27 debate who said she thought Biden had proven himself “incompetent.”

And some on Wall Street, a major fundraising center for Democrats, are beginning to indicate a preference.

“Biden is already behind Trump and he is unlikely to close that gap given the current state of his campaign. Vice President Harris’ presence likely improves the Democrats’ chances of taking the White House,” Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, a financial services firm, said after the debate. “Her chances are potentially higher than Biden’s at this point.”

A majority of Americans view Harris unfavorably, as do both men running for president.

According to pollster Five Thirty Eight, 37.1% of voters approve of Harris and 49.6% disapprove. That compares to Biden's 36.9% and 57.1%, and Trump's 38.6% and 53.6%.

WOMEN, BLACK VOTERS, GAZA

Since the Supreme Court struck down women's constitutional right to abortion in 2022, Harris has become the Biden administration's leading voice on reproductive rights, an issue Democrats are betting on will help them win the 2024 election.

Some Democrats believe Harris could reinvigorate Democratic-leaning groups whose enthusiasm for Biden has faded, including black voters, young voters and those who disapprove of Biden's handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.

“She would energize the Black, brown and Asian Pacific members of our coalition…she would immediately bring our nation’s disaffected youth back into the fold of organizing,” Tim Ryan, a former Democratic congressman from Ohio, said in a recent op-ed.

Suburban Democratic and Republican women might also be more comfortable with her than with Trump or Biden, he said.

As vice president, Harris' public strategy toward Israel is identical to Biden's, although she was the first senior U.S. government official to call for a ceasefire in March.

“Simply changing the candidate does not address the central concern” of the movement, said Abbas Alawieh, a member of the national “Uncommitted” movement who withheld his vote for Biden in the primaries because of his support for Israel.

If Biden were to withdraw, there could be competition among other Democrats to become the nominee.

If the party were to then choose another candidate over Harris, some Democrats say it could lose the support of many black voters who were crucial to Biden's 2020 election victory.

“There is no alternative to Kamala Harris,” said Adrianne Shropshire, executive director of the Black voter outreach group BlackPAC.

“If the Democratic Party thinks it's in trouble now because its base is confused… Jump over the black woman, the vice president, and I don't think the Democratic Party will really recover.”

TOO LEFT?

But Harris may struggle to win over moderate Democrats and independent voters who like Biden’s centrist policies, some Democratic donors said. Both parties are looking for independents to help them get across the finish line in the presidential election.

“Her biggest weakness is that her public brand has been associated with the far left wing of the Democratic Party … and the left wing of the Democratic Party can’t win a national election,” said Dmitri Mehlhorn, a fundraiser and adviser to LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman. “That’s the challenge she’ll have to overcome if she’s nominated.”

Harris would take over the money raised by the Biden campaign and inherit the campaign infrastructure, a crucial advantage just four months before Election Day on Nov. 5.

But any Democratic campaign still needs to raise hundreds of millions of dollars more before November to succeed, strategists say. And there Harris could be a liability.

“I can tell you we're having a really hard time raising money for her,” a source at the Democratic National Committee said.

As a 2020 presidential candidate, Harris lagged behind Biden in fundraising. She dropped out of the race in December 2019, the same month her campaign reported $39.3 million in total contributions. Biden’s campaign reported $60.9 million during the same period.

However, Biden's campaign raised a record $48 million in the 24 hours after Harris was named his running mate in 2020.

Harris's prosecutorial experience could shine in a one-on-one debate with Trump, some Democrats said.

“She is incredibly focused, energetic and intelligent, and if she pursues the case against Donald Trump's criminality, she will destroy him,” Mehlhorn said.

Republican attacks on Harris have been mounting as she has been floated as a possible replacement for Biden. Conservative leaders are circulating criticisms leveled at her during the 2020 campaign, including from some Democrats, that Harris laughs too much, is untested and unqualified.

Kelly Dittmar, a political science professor at Rutgers University, said the attacks are part of a long history of objectification and denigration of women of color in politics.

“Unfortunately, the use of racist and sexist attacks and stereotypes against women candidates for office is historically common and persists today,” Dittmar said.

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