Climate Opportunity for the New UK Government

Labour has set out a number of key climate policies in its election manifesto that, if implemented, would send a positive signal that the UK can and is taking action to tackle the climate crisis.

The first is to achieve clean electricity by 2030. This would bring us in line with the UK’s CAT benchmark of 96-98% clean electricity and emissions by 2030. It would take a huge effort, but it is absolutely achievable and would likely result in lower electricity prices across the UK. It would also send a strong message to the international community that a fossil fuel-free electricity sector is achievable. Reaching this target could accelerate the clean electricity race in other countries.

However, the electricity sector accounted for just 14% of UK emissions in 2023, with transport and buildings accounting for 28% and 20% respectively. Urgent action is needed in these sectors too.

Labour aims to double investment in energy efficiency in buildings. This is important, but the government must ensure that the funding reaches those who need it most – those experiencing fuel poverty. This is an essential part of the country's fair transition framework.

Prime Minister Starmer would be wise to reconsider his pledge to lift the new ban on gas boilers. A credible, long-term ban on fossil fuel technology can be invaluable in setting a clear direction for a sector and should not be abandoned.

In transport, the move to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 is welcome. But it is unclear how the government will achieve a zero-emission transport sector, with no detailed plans for public transport and no clear commitment to halting airport expansion.

One of the key challenges in the transport sector is aviation. The previous administration’s “jet-zero” aviation emissions strategy would see continued growth in the aviation sector, and airport expansion is planned across the country despite clear recommendations from the Climate Change Commission.

This policy relies heavily on offsets to compensate for fossil fuel emissions and on sustainable aviation fuel supplies (which are currently very small and expensive). Allowing aviation emissions to rise by 70% between 2021 and 2050 and then offsetting them is a deeply flawed strategy. Neither Starmer nor Miliband have yet shown any sign of moving away from this policy. [See our UK country analysis of the aviation sector for more details].

Another key Labour policy is to stop new oil and gas investment in the North Sea. This is consistent with the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, which states that no new investment in fossil fuel exploration or production is possible if warming is to be limited to 1.5C. But Labour has missed the opportunity to cancel fields like the giant Rosebank field, which has already been approved but is still in the project development stage. This is a carbon bomb that can and should be avoided.

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