8.4 magnitude earthquake on New Madrid fault won't hit St. Louis anytime soon

Several videos on social media are warning that a major earthquake in a seismic zone in Missouri could split the country in two. Here's what an actual seismologist has to say.

NEW MADRID, Mo. — After a series of recent National Guard drills in downtown St. Louis, countless amateur seismologists appeared out of nowhere overnight.

Since then, millions of people have watched several videos online that took the drill as a cue to share catastrophic predictions about a future earthquake in Missouri’s New Madrid Seismic Zone. The videos claim that seismologists are predicting a catastrophic earthquake in the next 50 years—one that would split the country in half, submerge the Midwest and damage about half the country.

Related: St. Louis First Responders Work With U.S. Army National Guard in Real-Life Earthquake Drills

One video had been viewed by 3.4 million people as of Wednesday.

“The ocean is basically going to open up and then the entire middle of the United States will be water,” said TikToker Nick Jackson, whose video has been viewed 1.3 million times in three days.

These claims have been bolstered by a recent trailer for the movie “Continental Divide” that was released live online, which shows a catastrophic earthquake destroying downtown St. Louis, including the Gateway Arch collapsing in on itself.

Are these predictions accurate, or just another example of the long history of unfounded panic that has surrounded New Madrid? We've looked into the facts to see if they're true.

the question:

Is an earthquake capable of splitting the country in half likely to hit the New Madrid seismic zone in the next 50 years?

Our sources:

the answer:

No, there will not be an earthquake strong enough to split the country in half. Seismologists warn that a major earthquake in the seismic zone is a scenario, but it would not be on the scale of an international catastrophe.

The New Madrid Seismic Zone is a series of faults, or fractures, between two blocks of rock that run up and down the Mississippi River Valley and have seen seismic activity for centuries. The area has seen at least three major earthquakes in recorded history, Pratt said. One occurred around the year 900, another around 1500, and the last in 1811.

The area has long been the subject of many theories and predictions, but unlike many other seismic zones in the eastern part of the country, the New Madrid area has been active recently. A similar false theory spread by a man named Eben Browning in 1990 caused chaos in the city of New Madrid, which was flooded with television crews. The predictions never came true.

This awkward moment has made many people realize a simple truth about earthquakes: they are unpredictable.

“As far as we know, larger earthquakes are likely to happen in the future, but we don’t know when they will happen because there’s no way we can predict earthquakes,” Pratt said. “The time between large earthquakes tends to be about 500 years or so, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be larger or smaller earthquakes tomorrow.”

Seismologists can predict the likelihood of an earthquake occurring over the next 50 years, based on historical trends of past earthquakes, but they can’t predict exactly when they will occur. For example, Pratt said current estimates for the New Madrid seismic zone project a 25-40 percent chance of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake occurring in the next 50 years and a 7-10 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake occurring in the same period.

The wild speculation and theories began to circulate recently after the National Guard announced it was preparing to train for a magnitude 8.4 earthquake. A quake of that magnitude is much larger than what Pratt would expect in the area.

“A 7.5 magnitude earthquake is the worst we can expect (from New Madrid),” Pratt said. “There’s a general rule that every 7 magnitude earthquake has about 10 6 magnitude earthquakes. Every 6 magnitude earthquake has about 10 5 magnitude earthquakes, and so on. … But kudos to the National Guard. They’re responsible for protecting us and they routinely train because if an earthquake happens, which is inevitable, they have to be ready.”

Another flaw in the recent social media trend is that an image that is constantly being shared in viral videos exaggerates the extent of the damage caused by a major earthquake in the New Madrid earthquake zone. The image is a map of the United States with a giant red dot in southern Missouri. The image is said to show the radius of the damage caused by a catastrophic earthquake if it occurred in the New Madrid earthquake zone.

The map, like most of what lay seismologists say, is completely unfounded. A reverse image search of the map reveals that it originally came from a Wikipedia article about a fictional earthquake that struck New Madrid in 2018.

The actual maps of a potential large New Madrid earthquake published by the USGS are much less alarming.

The image on the left shows the probability of a minor or larger damaging earthquake occurring in 100 years, with blue being the least likely and dark red the most likely. The image on the right is the USGS Earthquake Hazard Map, which shows areas with the highest risk of geological hazards capable of causing loss or damage. The hazard map is used to improve earthquake-resistant construction in the United States.

Although recent social media posts have exaggerated the extent of the devastation a major earthquake could cause in New Madrid, Pratt wanted to make clear that a devastating earthquake in the New Madrid area is a matter of when, not if.

“There will be large earthquakes in the New Madrid earthquake zone, likely magnitude 6 or so, which would be very destructive in and of itself,” Pratt said. “Use this information and this concern now to make sure you have a family plan, make sure you have emergency supplies on hand, and think about what you would do in the event of an earthquake.”

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