Japan issues warning over possible Nankai Trough earthquake

Japan said on Thursday the possibility of a major earthquake across a wide swath of central and western Japan had increased compared to normal conditions after a 7.1-magnitude quake struck off Miyazaki prefecture on the southern island of Kyushu earlier in the day.

Following the earthquake this afternoon, the Japan Meteorological Agency has begun investigating whether it is linked to a possible quake in the Nankai Trough, which experts have warned for years could cause massive loss of life and property across a wide swath of central and western Japan. The trough is a sea trench that runs along part of the southern Japanese archipelago.

The agency released additional information on the Nankai Trough earthquake for the first time ever on Thursday evening. An accompanying government advisory said that “the possibility of a large-scale earthquake is considered relatively higher than normal conditions.” According to the agency, large earthquakes occur every 100 to 150 years in the central and western regions of the country.

The government had previously said the chance of such a quake occurring in 30 years was 70 percent. Although Naoshi Hirata, an earthquake expert and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, told a news conference held by the agency that “the chances are several times higher than usual” after the Miyazaki quake, it was still a “rare event.” Still, he urged people to be prepared.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called on the public to check their earthquake preparedness and “be prepared to evacuate immediately in the event of an earthquake.”

There have been no reports of major damage from Thursday's 7.1-magnitude quake and small tsunami. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said the government had “not received any reports of any abnormalities” at nuclear plants and related facilities in the area.

The agency urged residents to be on alert for a week, as the possibility of a major earthquake immediately after the Miyazaki quake increased. But its representatives repeatedly stressed that such major quakes could occur at any time, even after a certain period of time.

Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone countries because of its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of volcanoes and fault lines that circles the Pacific Ocean basin. Japan suffered a triple disaster in March 2011, when a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the northeastern coast triggered a deadly tsunami, leading to three nuclear meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.

The agency said the Nankai Basin earthquake may be confined to the vicinity of Thursday's quake or extend to “the entire Nankai Basin.”

Experts say a Nankai Trough earthquake could extend across areas ranging from the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku and parts of Honshu including Aichi and other prefectures to areas further east closer to Tokyo such as Shizuoka Prefecture – simultaneously or in succession with a magnitude of up to 9 on the Richter scale.

The quake could also trigger a tsunami more than 30 meters high, together killing up to 320,000 people and causing economic losses of up to 220 trillion yen ($1.5 trillion), according to government estimates in 2012.

It has been more than 70 years since the last major earthquake disaster in the region, making such an event more likely, experts say.

Kishida is scheduled to travel to the city of Nagasaki on Kyushu island to attend annual commemorations of the 1945 U.S. atomic bombing of the city on Friday, and will travel to Kazakhstan later in the day for a summit with Central Asian nations. He is also scheduled to visit Uzbekistan and Mongolia. It was not immediately clear whether the high risk of an earthquake in the Nankai region would affect his plans.

He added that the government “will make appropriate decisions” based on the information it collects.

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