Japan issues first warning of a “huge earthquake” in its history.. Learn everything about the “big earthquake”

The earthquake that struck southern Japan on Thursday was not a major event for the country, despite its magnitude of 7.1. The quake caused minor damage, but it was immediately followed by a major warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which said there was a heightened risk of the country’s first ever “super-tectonic earthquake.” In response to the alarming announcement, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida decided to cancel his planned trip to a summit in Central Asia, and instead chose to stay in the country for the next week “to ensure that our preparations and communications are in order,” the BBC reported. What is a “super-tectonic earthquake”? Earthquakes measuring over 8.0 are classified as super-tectonic. Many Japanese citizens found themselves contemplating the dreaded super-tectonic earthquake – a catastrophic quake that occurs once every hundred years – that they had been warned about. The worst-case scenario puts the death toll at more than 300,000, with the potential for massive tsunamis as high as 30 metres (100 feet) to hit the East Asian nation’s Pacific coast. Japan, which sits on the Ring of Fire, is no stranger to seismic activity, experiencing around 1,500 earthquakes a year. While most of these tremors cause minor damage, there have been devastating exceptions, such as the 9.0-magnitude quake that struck in 2011, triggering a tsunami that killed more than 18,000 people along the northeastern coast. In 1707, a 600-kilometre-long (370-mile-long) fault line in the Nankai Trough triggered Japan’s second-largest earthquake on record, followed by the eruption of Mount Fuji. These massive “megaquakes” typically occur every century or so, often in pairs, with the most recent occurring in 1944 and 1946. According to experts, there is a 70% to 80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake occurring somewhere along the basin within the next three decades. According to the BBC, geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard, in their Earthquake Insights newsletter on Thursday, referred to the long-awaited event as “the original definition of a ‘big earthquake.’” The duo acknowledged that “the history of major Nankai earthquakes is so compellingly frightening” that it is alarming. What is the Nankai Trough? Located off the southwestern Pacific coast of Japan, the Nankai Trough is a significant geological feature that stretches for about 900 kilometers (600 miles). The basin is formed by the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate. The convergence of these two tectonic plates along the Nankai Trough is causing enormous tectonic strains to build up over time. Reuters reported that these accumulated strains have the potential to trigger a major, devastating earthquake about once every 100 to 150 years. Can earthquakes really be predicted? Robert Geller, a retired professor of seismology at the University of Tokyo, rejects the idea that earthquakes can be predicted accurately. “The warning issued yesterday has nothing to do with science,” he told the BBC. “Almost.” He argued that earthquakes are known to be a “clustered phenomenon,” adding: “It is not possible to know in advance whether an earthquake is a foreshock or an aftershock.” The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) implemented a warning system in the wake of the 2011 events, with the aim of preventing future disasters of a similar magnitude. On Thursday, the agency used the system for the first time. However, while the warning advised citizens to remain prepared, it did not explicitly order anyone to evacuate. In fact, the JMA sought to downplay the likelihood of a major imminent danger. “The probability of a new major earthquake is higher than usual, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur,” the JMA said. Why was the alert issued if earthquakes cannot be predicted? The system offers the option of issuing a warning or a lower-level alert. An alert was sent out on Thursday urging individuals to prepare for possible evacuation. Based on anecdotal evidence, the system appears to have been effective. Although the country is used to receiving alerts on their phones, the impact of the Nankai Trough and the imminent threat of a “big earthquake” have caused people to pause and pay attention. Despite the terrifying nature of these scenarios, Masayo Oshio is left puzzled. “I’m puzzled by this warning and don’t know what to do with it,” she told the BBC. “We know we can’t predict earthquakes and we’ve been told for a long time that a big earthquake is coming one day, so I kept asking myself: is this it? But it doesn’t seem real to me.” She added: “I feel like the government is exaggerating.” In response to the 7.1-magnitude quake that struck near Nichinan in Miyazaki Prefecture on Thursday, officials are assessing the status of previously opened shelters. According to Kyodo News, by Friday morning, 10 municipalities in Kochi Prefecture in western Japan had set up at least 75 evacuation shelters. JERA, a joint venture between Tokyo Electric Power Holdings and Chubu Electric Power Co., said it was on emergency alert and had confirmed contacts with fuel transport companies and evacuation protocols for sidewalks. In many cities, authorities are encouraging elderly residents and others to voluntarily move to safer areas.

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