How today's macho leaders lose friends and alienate people

The Union government has long turned its back on the Non-Aligned Movement, probably with good reason, as the organization is moribund, while hostility between India and Pakistan has hampered the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc). No Saarc summit has been held since 2014, and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan ignored last week's video conference convened by Modi to create a Saarc-wide response to the Covid crisis -19, delegating a bureaucrat instead.

The international image of India took a blow after the enactment of the Citizenship (Amendment) Law (CAA) which led to protests and violence. Unusual criticisms have come from Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir bin Mohamad, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan and the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet Jeria, attempted to file an application to intervene with the Supreme Court in a case against the CAA on the grounds that it violated the commitments of India under international human rights laws.

The Indian prime minister could take comfort in the fact that Mahathir Mohamad has since been overthrown, and Erdoan and Khamenei are facing more serious crises than he is. To look first at the plight of the Ayatollahs, the Iranian economy has been in recession since Trump unilaterally revoked an international agreement led by his predecessor Barack Obama who lifted sanctions in exchange for cutting his agenda nuclear by Iran. Iran has started to harass its opponents in an effort to keep the world's attention on the issue. He was suspected of attacking tankers near Fujairah in May 2019 and near the Strait of Hormuz the following month.

After pro-Iranian attackers entered the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad on New Year's Eve 2019, the Trump administration responded by assassinating Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, which manages the extraterritorial operations of # 39; Iran. Since Soleimani was by far the most popular public figure in Iran, the regime had everything to gain from public anger at its former enemy, the United States. However, in an air strike to avenge the assassination, Iran mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner carrying mainly Iranian and Iranian-Canadian passengers, and attempted to cover up its error . The anger of ordinary Iranians has now focused on their leaders, who have always insisted that the accidental destruction of an Iran Air Airbus A300 by an American missile in 1988 was a deliberate act.

The alienation felt by the Iranians has been accentuated by the chaotic response of the Covid-19 government. The current collapse in oil prices will worsen the country's economic pain, jeopardizing its support for the Houthi insurgents in Yemen and the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Erdoan turkeys, on the other side of the war in Syria, must face his own judgment. Having forged an unexpected bond with the Russians Vladimir Putin, Assad's biggest supporter, Erdoan thought he could negotiate a truce that would address Turks' concerns over Kurdish insurgents attacking his territory from Syrian havens. He risked his country's position in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by choosing the Russian S-400 rather than the American surface-to-air missile system MIM-104 Patriot because that the Americans would not provide the technology transfer he wanted.

Turkey has attempted to create a stable buffer zone in Syria, but fighting has intensified. In late February, 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in an air strike by Syrian forces backed by Russia. Turkey responded effectively with drone bombs, but the Erdoan-Putin bromance was over. When a Turkish delegation went to Russia to seal a new truce, Erdoan was humiliated by being kept standing in an anteroom for long minutes before being brought in the presence of Putin. The two leaders were seated in front of a fireplace which bore a sculpture of Catherine the Great, who had defeated the Ottoman army during the Russo-Turkish war of the 18th century. The symbolic escalation signaled how the relations between the two powers had changed.

A few days later, Putin had a dramatic argument with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS. Their connection focused on the price of oil. In 2014 Ali Al-Naimi, the respected oil minister of Saudi Arabia, son of a pearl-diving father and a Bedouin mother, launched a price war targeting shale oil high-priced American. The resulting drop in income had such an impact on the Saudi economy that the nation's new near-ruler, MBS, removed Naimi in 2016. MBS also sidelined the gap 39; Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the direct negotiation of production reductions. with Russia. When MBS was under pressure after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and critic of the Riyadh regime, Putin helped him with a public demonstration of their friendship.

The partnership has supported oil prices, but has also created space for shale production to continue to climb. Worried about continuously losing market share and rejoicing over the US sanctions imposed on Rosneft Trading, a Geneva-based subsidiary of the Russian oil giant Rosneft Oil Company, who had been accused of helping Venezuela circumvent US sanctions, Putin rejected the new production reductions proposed by MBS to counter the slowdown in demand caused by the coronavirus pandemic. MBS reacted by massively increasing Saudi production by 26% and by offering advantageous offers to the main European customers of Moscows. These shocking measures made it clear that the breakdown of negotiations was not an ordinary disagreement between friends. MBS went to the mattresses, undermining Russia while Russia sought to reduce the American shale.

Saudi Arabia may be the cheapest oil producer in the world, but needs high prices to finance its generous welfare measures and huge arms purchases, especially since Covid -19 threatens his lucrative pilgrimage industry. MBS reactivated Ali Al-Naimis 2014 strategy, but it remains to be seen how long it will be able to endure the pain that accompanies it.

Saudi-Russian antagonism is the first major geopolitical divide engendered by the pandemic. Other cracks are likely to open if the virus persists in a scenario where rash leadership has given way to a macho posture in many parts of the world.

Girish Shahane writes on politics, history and art.