A huge earthquake is brewing? Nankai Trough earthquake expected

Japanese authorities have issued a warning of possible activity along the Nankai Trough south of the main island of Honshu. A look at the long and devastating history of this major earthquake zone.

Troubled land off the south coast

At 4:42 p.m. on August 8, a 7.1-magnitude earthquake, centered under the Hyoganda Sea off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture, Kyushu Island, struck, causing seismic tremors of less than 6 magnitude in Nichinan City.

The quake, which occurred at a depth of 31 kilometers (19 miles) below the surface, caught the attention of seismologists at the Japan Meteorological Agency, who held a special meeting and viewed the quake as a possible sign of a major earthquake along the Nankai Trough, which runs under the sea south of Shikoku and west of Honshu. That day, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued its first major earthquake warning, urging increased precautions against any potential quakes along the main fault line.

The Nankai Trough stretches from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture in the northeast to the Hyoganda Sea in the southwest, marking the line where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts under the Eurasian Plate. Throughout recorded history, this basin has been the site of major earthquakes every 100 to 150 years on average. It has been about eight decades since the last two major quakes here, the 1944 Tonankai earthquake (magnitude 7.9) and the 1946 Nankai earthquake (magnitude 8.0), and Japanese authorities see a 70% to 80% chance of another quake of this magnitude within the next 30 years. In 2019, the government’s Central Disaster Prevention Council forecast that in a worst-case scenario, more than 230,000 people could be killed or missing from such a quake and subsequent tsunami, with some 2.1 million buildings destroyed or completely burned in the affected area.

Hakuho earthquake (November 29, 684; 8.3 on the Richter scale)

Epicenter: Off the coast from Cape Ashizuri (now in Kochi Prefecture) to Cape Ushio (Wakayama).

Damage: Records indicate landslides and river flooding; destruction of many official buildings, temples, and shrines; deaths of people and livestock; and a tsunami that sank many ships in Tosa (Kochi) Province.

Nina earthquake (August 26, 887; 8.3 on the Richter scale)

Epicenter: In the sea from Cape Ashizuri (Kochi) to Cape Ohmae (Shizuoka).

Damage: There are still records of many people killed in the collapse of government buildings and houses in Kyoto, and the tsunami that hit the coast also killed many people.

Itchō-Tokai earthquake (December 17, 1096; M8.0–M8.5) and Kowa-Nankai earthquake (February 22, 1099; M8.0–M8.3)

Epicenter: The first earthquake struck the area from Cape Ushio (Wakayama) to Cape Omae (Shizuoka); a little over two years later, a second earthquake struck the area to the southwest, from Cape Ashizuri (Kochi) to Cape Ushio.

Damage: In Nara, the 1096 earthquake caused the great bell of Todaiji Temple to fall and the corridors of Yakushiji Temple to collapse; tsunamis also struck Ise and Suruga Bays. The 1099 earthquake destroyed the great gate and corridors of Kofukuji Temple in Nara.

Shohei-Nankai earthquake (August 3, 1361; M8.0–M8.5)

Epicenter: Off the coast in the area extending from Cape Ashizuri (Kochi) to Cape Omae (Shizuoka).

Damage: Severe damage was recorded in Settsu (Osaka to Hyogo), Owa (Tokushima), and Tosa (Kochi); the Golden Pavilion at Shitennoji Temple in Settsu collapsed.

Miyo-Tokai earthquake (September 20, 1498; M8.2–M8.4)

Epicenter: Off the coast in the area extending from Cape Ushio (Wakayama) to Suruga Bay (Shizuoka).

Damage: Strong earthquakes were recorded from Kii (Mie, Wakayama) to Boso (Chiba), as well as inland in Kai (Yamanashi). The main hall of the Kumano Hongu Grand Shrine (Wakayama) collapsed and tsunami waves hit the coast as far as Boso, killing many people.

Kichu earthquake (February 3, 1605; 7.9 on the Richter scale)

Epicenter: Off the coast in the area extending from Cape Ashizuri (Kochi) to Cape Omae (Shizuoka).

Damage: Only minor damage was reported from the earthquakes, but the tsunami struck most of the Pacific coast, from Cape Inobu (Chiba) to Kyushu. At Awa Tomura (now Kaiyu City, Tokushima) the tsunami reached a height of 30 meters.

Hue earthquake (October 28, 1707; 8.6 on the Richter scale)

Epicenter: Off the coast from the Enshonada Sea (Aichi) to Kochi.

Damage: House collapses were reported along the Pacific coast from Suruga (Shizuoka) to Kyushu, as well as deep inland in western Kai (Yamanashi), Shinano (Nagano), Mino (Gifu), and Toyama. Tsunami damage occurred from the Izu Peninsula (Shizuoka) to parts of Kyushu.

Possible links have been drawn between this earthquake and the 8.1-magnitude Genroku earthquake of 1703, centered just south of Chiba, as well as the eruption of Mount Fuji on December 16, 1707, a few months later.

Ansei Tokai earthquake (December 23, 1854; M8.4) and Ansei Nankai earthquake (December 24, 1854; M8.4)

Epicenter: Just 30 hours apart, the first quake struck the area from the Kii Peninsula to Suruga Bay, while the second quake struck along the fault to the west, off the coast of the Kii Peninsula to Shikoku.

Damage: The greatest damage was reported in the area around the mouth of the Tenryu River (in present-day Hamamatsu, Shizuoka) and damage occurred in inland cities such as Kofu (Yamanashi), Matsumoto (Nagano), and Fukui. The tsunami struck the area from Boso (Chiba) to Tosa (Kochi).

Shōwa Tonankai earthquake (December 7, 1944; M7.9) and Shōwa Nankai earthquake (December 21, 1946; M8.0)

Epicenter: The first earthquake struck off the coast of the Kii Peninsula into the Enshonada Sea; two years later, the second earthquake struck the fault to the west, off the coast of the Kii Peninsula along the coast of Shikoku.

Damage: The 1944 earthquake caused extensive damage to Shizuoka, Aichi, Gifu, and Mie prefectures. The 1946 earthquake triggered a tsunami that struck coasts from the Boso Peninsula in Chiba to Kyushu.

(Originally published in Japanese. Logo image © Kyōdō; edited by Nippon.com.)

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