Minister warns that 600,000 homes could collapse in minutes if an earthquake hits Istanbul

Turkey's Environment Minister Murat Kurum has warned that 600,000 homes in Istanbul are at risk of collapse in the event of a major earthquake that seismologists predict will hit the city of 16 million by 2030, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported Friday.

Istanbul is located near the North Anatolian Fault, making it prone to earthquakes.

In 2001, two years after a 7.4-magnitude earthquake killed 17,000 people in northwestern Turkey on August 17, experts calculated a 65 percent chance that a quake of magnitude greater than 7 would occur before 2030 in the same region — which includes Istanbul.

The risk increases to 75% within 50 years, and to 95% within 90 years.

One in five homes in Istanbul – nearly 1.5 million – are considered unstable, with nearly 600,000 homes at risk of being destroyed in the first few minutes of a potential quake, Kurum told Anadolu Agency on the anniversary of the 1999 earthquake on Friday.

The minister said that at least 2.5 million people in Istanbul are at risk, and the potential earthquake is expected to affect not only the country's business center, but Turkey as a whole.

“An earthquake in Istanbul will cause serious problems in the fields of economy, trade, tourism, education, defense and transportation,” Korum added.

“We are fully aware of the seriousness of this situation… We have converted some of the 1.5 million dangerous buildings we have identified in Istanbul. We have increased the earthquake resistance of public buildings, including education and healthcare facilities.”

If a major earthquake occurs in the Marmara region, not only Istanbul but also nearby cities and industrial areas will be affected. Experts are concerned about potential secondary disasters, such as fires and chemical leaks, which could exacerbate the impact of the earthquake.

Before the main opposition Republican People's Party took over Istanbul after the 2019 elections, the city was ruled by the Justice and Development Party, which has ruled Turkey as a single-party government since 2002.

The AKP is accused of failing to take precautions against a possible earthquake in the city, destroying many green areas and allowing high-rise buildings and shoddy construction in the city despite the risk of an earthquake.

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