Artificial intelligence predicts earthquakes with unprecedented accuracy

An artificial intelligence algorithm developed by the University of Texas has successfully predicted 70% of earthquakes in a single experiment, demonstrating potential improvements in earthquake preparedness and risk management. The algorithm’s performance in an international competition highlights its accuracy and adaptability. Copyright: SciTechDaily.com

Researchers at the University of Texas have developed an artificial intelligence that predicted 70% of earthquakes during an experiment in China, suggesting the potential for mitigating future earthquake risks.

The AI, trained on seismic data, also took first place in an international competition, confirming its effectiveness and opening the door for further improvements in areas like California and Texas.

Breakthrough in Earthquake Prediction Using Artificial Intelligence

A new attempt to predict earthquakes with the help of artificial intelligence has raised hopes that the technology could one day be used to reduce the impact of earthquakes on lives and economies. An AI algorithm developed by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin was able to correctly predict 70 percent of earthquakes a week in advance during a seven-month experiment in China.

Damage in New Zealand after a powerful earthquake in 2011. Researchers at the University of Texas at Austin are working to predict earthquakes using artificial intelligence. Copyright: Flickr/Martin Fluff Experiment results and global implications

The AI ​​was trained to spot statistical bumps in real-time seismic data that the researchers correlated with past earthquakes. The result was a weekly forecast in which the AI ​​successfully predicted 14 earthquakes within about 200 miles of where it estimated they would occur, with roughly calculated magnitudes. It missed one earthquake and gave eight false alarms.

It is not yet known whether the same approach will work in other locations, but the effort represents a milestone in research into earthquake prediction using artificial intelligence.

Challenges and future trends

“Earthquake prediction is the ultimate goal,” says Sergey Fumel, a professor at the University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology and a member of the research team. “We’re not even close to predicting anything anywhere in the world, but what we’ve achieved tells us that what we thought was an impossible problem can in principle be solved.”

The experiment was part of an international competition held in China where the AI ​​developed by the University of Texas came in first among 600 other designs. The University of Texas team was led by the bureau’s seismologist and lead developer of the AI, Yangkang Chen. The results of the experiment were published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

This map shows the location of earthquakes predicted by AI in China (blue dots) linked by a red line to where each actual earthquake occurred (red dots). The numbers indicate the week in which the earthquake occurred. During the 30-week experiment, the AI ​​developed by the University of Texas at Austin failed to detect just one earthquake. Copyright: Yangkang Chen/Jackson School of Geosciences Impact on preparedness and further research

“You can’t predict when an earthquake will happen. It’s a matter of milliseconds, and the only thing you can control is how prepared you are,” said Alexandros Savvaidis, a senior research scientist who heads the bureau’s TexNet program, the state’s earthquake network. “Even at 70 percent, that’s a huge result and could help reduce economic and human losses and has the potential to dramatically improve earthquake preparedness around the world.”

The researchers said their method worked by following a relatively simple machine-learning approach. The AI ​​was given a set of statistical features based on the team’s knowledge of earthquake physics, and then told to train itself on a five-year database of seismic recordings.

Once trained, the AI ​​made its predictions by listening for signs of incoming earthquakes amid the background vibrations in the ground.

“We are very proud of this team for taking first place in this prestigious competition,” said Scott Tinker, director of the office. “Of course, it’s not just location and size that matters, but timing as well. Earthquake prediction is a tough problem, and we can’t overstate how difficult it is.”

The researchers are confident that in places with strong earthquake-tracking networks, such as California, Italy, Japan, Greece, Turkey and Texas, AI can improve its success rate and narrow its prediction range to a few tens of miles.

One of the next steps is to test the AI ​​in Texas, where the state experiences a high rate of minor earthquakes and some moderate earthquakes. The bureau’s TexNet network hosts 300 seismic stations and more than six years of continuous records, making it an ideal location to validate the method.

Ultimately, the researchers want to integrate the system with physics-based models, which could be important where data is thin, or in places like Cascadia, where the last major earthquake occurred hundreds of years before seismometers were available.

“Our future goal is to combine physics and data-driven methods to have something generalizable, like chatGPT, that we can apply anywhere in the world,” Chen said.

The new research represents an important step towards achieving this goal.

“It may be far-fetched, but it is many advances like this one, taken together, that drive science forward,” Tinker said.

Reference: “Earthquake Prediction Using Big Data and Artificial Intelligence: A 30-Week Real-Time Case Study in China” by Omar M. Saad, Yunfeng Chen, Alexandros Savvaidis, Sergey Fomel, Xiuxuan Jiang, Dino Huang, Yabo Abouli, Serge Innocent Aubui, Shanshan Yong, Xin An Wang, Xing Zhang, Yangkang Chen, September 5, 2023, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America. DOI: 10.1785/0120230031

The research was supported by TexNet, the Texas Consortium for Computational Seismology, and Zhejiang University. The office is a research unit of the Jackson School of Geosciences.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://scitechdaily.com/artificial-intelligence-predicts-earthquakes-with-unprecedented-accuracy/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos