How Germany's Federal Elections Caused a Political Earthquake Across Europe

On September 1, two German states, Saxony and Thuringia, held elections, and for the first time the whole world is talking about regional elections in Germany. And the reason is clear – a wave of extreme political choices continues to threaten Europe.

But the threat was at least temporarily eased in France, when all parties united against the victory of the far-right National Front led by Marine Le Pen.

But just a few months later, the AfD’s impressive results in these two German states reminded Europe that the toxic ideas of the far right are still very much alive.

The AfD may not be in power, but it has a third of the representatives in both parliaments. The two countries are in eastern Germany, traditionally more conservative and more inclined to extreme political options, but this is the best result for the AfD, and also for the far-right in Germany, since the end of World War II. If we also take into account the growth of the populist right in Slovakia and the sovereign power of Viktor Orbán in Hungary, it is clear that Europe is sliding towards the normalization of far-right ideas. We will see the first test of this theory on September 29 in Austria.

Specifically, Austrians will go to parliamentary elections and possibly elect a new government. The current ruling coalition is made up of the conservatives of the Austrian People’s Party, the party long led by Sebastian Kurz, and the Greens, an environmental party that has come to power at the national level for the first time.

But according to current opinion polls, the right-wing Freedom Party, a party that certainly belongs to the far-right wave that has been threatening Europe for years, is in the lead.

However, it must be said that there is a difference between the AfD and the FPOe, in the sense that the FPOe is a party that has come to power on several occasions (1983-1986, 1999-2005, 2017-2019), and is considered much less extreme than its German counterparts.

But the Spanish Freedom Party is a party with very toxic views in politics. First and foremost, its relations with Russia and the authorities in Moscow are strong, as evidenced by the so-called “Ibiza affair,” the scandal that brought down the government in 2019.

Several FPÖ politicians were then filmed talking to the niece of a Russian oligarch about giving public tenders in exchange for positive coverage of the party. The video was filmed in 2017 and was released two years later, prompting the FPÖ’s then-coalition partners, the conservatives, to break their coalition agreement and call elections, leading to the collapse of the party, which lost 20 seats in the Austrian parliament.

In addition, the Freedom Party has a large number of conspiracy theorists in its party, and their special topics are immigration and the Covid-19 pandemic, i.e. vaccination against this virus.

Of course, it is difficult to talk about the Freedom Party without mentioning its ties to Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska. Freedom Party leaders have met with Dodik several times, and a senior member of the party attended the celebration of the unconstitutional “Day of Republika Srpska” on January 9. In addition, many of its officials have supported Dodik’s separatist tendencies in the past.

In any case, the Freedom Party is now the favorite to win the elections, and if we take into account that they were still in power in the past, as well as the fact that it is difficult to expect the Greens to enter power again, the realistic scenario is that the far right will be part of the ruling coalition in Austria.

The only scenario in which the Freedom Party could remain in opposition, if the expectations based on pre-election polls come true, is a so-called “grand coalition”, i.e. cooperation between the KLA and the social democrats of the Civic Socialist Party.

Incidentally, this coalition ruled Austria from 1986 to 2017, with an interruption from 1999 to 2006. Relations between the KLA and the OSCE are not at their best, so this situation is also unrealistic.

If these two parties fail to agree, it is impossible to see a government without the Freedom Party, which could be a worrying step and a step towards further normalization of extremist ideas in Europe.

The fact that Germany will hold a general election next year, with the AfD expected to achieve its best national result in the party’s history, is enough of a problem for the continent.

That is why we should hope that the “classic” parties in Austria, but also in other countries of Europe, will be able to overcome their problems and form alliances against the extreme right, which certainly poses the greatest danger to the Old Continent, writes the website Clicks.pa.

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