Indonesia: Prabowo-Jokowi alliance threatens opposition

End of August, nationwide protests Protesters attempted to break down the gates of the parliament in Jakarta. The spark came from a plan by lawmakers to circumvent Constitutional Court rulings on November regional elections that would disadvantage the political alliance of current President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who will succeed him on October 20.

Faced with angry protesters, lawmakers backed down in a rare defeat for the partnership that has come to dominate Indonesian politics. With remarkable chutzpah, Jokowi and Prabowo quickly distanced themselves from the bills proposed by their supporters in parliament.

Today we have witnessed an extraordinary democratic process, said Hasan Nasbi, Jokowi's communications chief. said on August 22, the day protesters attempted to storm Parliament, adding that the scenario was just one example of our greatness as a nation. Prabowo took the opportunity to denounce anonymous politicians, driven by an insatiable thirst for power and who seek to pursue interests other than those of the people.

This year, faced with the limitation of his mandate, Jokowi has tacitly supported Prabowo’s bid for president in Indonesia in February. Some state institutions appear to have helped Prabowo, who has pledged to continue Joko Widodo’s legacy. Their powerful alliance has pushed Indonesia’s democratic system to its limits, but the protests show that the opposition remains, even if it is under threat. Constitutional Court rulings continue to stand in the way of regional elections, and Prabowo could face similar resistance when he takes office.

THE surprise decisions The Constitutional Court has ruled to reshape the November regional elections. The first ruling lowered the threshold for nominating candidates. Until now, regional candidates had to be supported by political parties collectively representing at least 20% of seats in regional legislatures or 25% of all voters. With eight major parties lining up behind Prabowo and Jokowi, there was clear coordination to support single candidates in elections for key governor positionswhich would have allowed them to run unopposed.

Candidates critical of the government were barred from the poll. But the move is now expected to allow candidates from Jokowi's former party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which has increasingly opposed the president since backing Prabowo, to run.

The Constitutional Court also overturned a Supreme Court ruling in May that had held that regional candidates had to meet minimum age requirements only at the time of their nomination, not at the time of their candidacy registration, as was the previous practice. Critics said the Supreme Courts suspicious decisionespecially because the only candidate in the regional elections was Jokowi's younger son, Kaesang Pangarep, who was preparing to run in the regional elections. Deputy Governor of Central Java.

Last year, another decision of the Constitutional Court allowed Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, ran as Prabowo's vice president despite not having reached the age limit of 40. The case was presided over by then-Chief Justice Anwar Usman, who happens to be Jokowi's brother-in-law; he was later forced to resign for violation of ethics in the presidency of the case.

Faced with this double blow, the pro-government parties have formed their plan to circumvent the parliament's decisions. On August 21, key lawmakers met with Justice and Human Rights Minister Supratman Andi Agtas, a member of Prabowos' party. They came away with a proposal to revise provisions in regional election laws on candidate eligibility and nominations.

But while public reaction to previous controversies, such as the decision to allow Gibran to run, has been muted, the public outcry this time has been swift. At the time of the Constitutional Court’s decision on Gibran, people may not have yet been aware of what was going on behind the scenes and the interference by President Joko Widodo, said Agung Pradita, a student who helped lead the protests. People are beginning to realize that the state of democracy in Indonesia is not good today.

On August 22, large-scale protests took place in more than a dozen Indonesian cities. As usual, student and worker groups led the crowds, but many veteran activists said the demonstrations attracted more people who are not usually inclined to activism. credited Much of this has happened on social media, where influencers and others with popular accounts have promoted protests with an image designed to look like a warning of disaster.

Many protesters focused on Jokowi, accusing him of plotting to build a political dynasty and calling him a nepotist to military dictator Suharto, who ruled Indonesia as president for 30 years. Other activists addressed broader themes: “The reason I fought to save the Constitutional Court’s decisions is that I believe if we lose this decision, we will have lost our democracy and our rule of law,” said Titi Anggraini, a constitutional lawyer.

Thomas Lembong, a former trade minister under Jokowi and now a critic, was one of the few prominent political figures to public side Democratic values ​​are deeply rooted in our society, some 26 years after our transition to democracy, and we see that our people are reacting strongly to the efforts of some political elites to dismantle the institutions of democracy, Lembong said. Foreign policy.

The upcoming regional elections are now shaping up to be more competitive, with some reservations. Few races seem to be decided by a single candidate. single candidatealthough a number of races feature only candidates backed by parties within Prabowo's coalition. Still, the limits on Prabowo's ability to rally parties that nominally support him may serve as a check on his power. The PDI-P is the only party currently opposing Prabowo and Jokowi, but it plans to back former Jakarta governor and presidential candidate Anies Baswedan to run in Jakarta or West Java shipwrecked.

Lembong said he hoped the Prabowo-led government could change course from Jokowi once it takes office next month. With a new electoral mandate and inheriting all the levers of power as a continuation of the ruling coalition, the new Prabowo government has every chance of rehabilitating our democratic institutions, he said.

However, while the executive has reduced the limits of its power under Jokowi, there are reasons to believe that this trend could continue under Prabowo. A former son-in-law of Suharto, Prabowo was implicated in the kidnapping and disappearance of pro-democracy activists in 1998. He has previously expressed dissatisfaction with the functioning of democracy in Indonesia and suggested that regional elections be held. should be abolished.

The struggle for democracy in Indonesia has been going on for a long time, says Kevin O'Rourke, founder of political risk consultancy Reformasi Information Services. Today, it feels more like Indonesians are fighting for democracy: they turn it off one day and turn it on the next.

The Constitutional Court is already under pressure. Anwar, the former president of the court, is pursue legal action be reinstated in his role. Pro-government lawmakers have proposed bills that would weaken the Courtpartly by changing the justices' term limits, which would fire some of the justices who voted against the Gibran decision last year.

The military, a pillar of the political system under Suharto, could also make a modest comeback when Prabowo takes office. Senior politicians expected to serve in Prabowo's government have privately indicated that he wants the military to play a role. Political analysts have expressed concern about proposed legislative changes that would help the military. to extend its influence in politicsRevisions to laws governing the military would allow active-duty officers to serve in a wider range of bureaucratic positions, and the military has also begun pressure to recover his right to carry out commercial activities.

Meanwhile, the potential for active political opposition in Indonesia has diminished. Prabowo recently suggested that this opposition was a Western cultural import and that Indonesia needed to cultivate a consensual political culture. He has already got the support The leaders of seven of the eight parties that will sit in the next parliament will be forced to resign if they do not comply with the rule. Airlangga Hartarto, the leader of Golkar, Indonesia's second-largest party in parliament, suddenly resigned on August 11 without a clear explanation. He was reluctant to accept plans for all parties supporting Prabowo to support the same candidates in regional elections.

Golkar's new leader, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, is seen as a close ally of JokowiIn his speech accepting the party leadership, he stressed that Golkar would support the Prabowo government, add cryptically:We have to do better, because we will be condemned by this Javanese king if we play with him. I tell you, don't try to play with this thing. It's terrifying. Politicians and analysts interpreted this comment as a reference to Jokowi.

The only party that appears to be in opposition today is the PDI-P, Jokowi’s former stronghold; it has opposed plans to ignore Constitutional Court rulings and has occasionally sounded the alarm about democratic erosion. However, Prabowo has expressed interest in working with the PDI-P, and while party leader Megawati Sukarnoputri may feel betrayed by Jokowi, she has worked with Prabowo in the past. (He was her running mate for president in 2009.) Sukarnoputri’s daughter and heir apparent, Parliament Speaker Puan Maharani, seems particularly open to working with the PDI-P. cooperative approach.

It is not yet clear how long the cozy entente between Prabowo and Jokowi will last. Political rumors in Jakarta often revolve around the question of when relations between Jokowi and Prabowo will deteriorate. Until then, the opposition’s room for maneuver within the political system will likely remain limited, but if the opposition fails to find an outlet within the established structures, it will continue to express itself outside the system as it did last month.