Donald Trump leads election forecasts

Donald Trump's chances of beating Kamala Harris in the 2024 election have improved in recent days, though the vice president is still considered the slight favorite overall, according to forecasters.

In the latest update of the 538 prediction model, formerly FiveThirtyEight, Harris has a 55 in 100 chance of winning a majority of the Electoral College votes, compared to Trump's 45 in 100 chance.

That's an improvement from the 39% chance 538 gave the Republican on September 17 (the first time Trump fell below 40% in 538's election forecasting model), while Harris went from a 61% chance of winning.

G. Elliott Morris of 538 said Trump’s improved chances are due to recent New York Times/Siena polls, as well as surveys by Quinnipiac University and others, that show the race is closer than in previous polls. Harris’ current lead in the race is “barely better than a coin toss,” Morris said.

Donald Trump speaks at a rally on September 23, 2024 in Indiana, Pennsylvania. The 538 forecast website said Trump's chances of winning the election are improving. Donald Trump speaks at a rally on September 23, 2024 in Indiana, Pennsylvania. The 538 forecast website said Trump's chances of winning the election are improving. Win McNamee/Getty Images

“The narrow margins in key states make this cycle’s presidential race the tightest in decades – the outcome could be closer than any election in nearly 150 years,” Morris said.

On Tuesday, a New York Times/Siena poll of key Sun Belt states showed Trump edged Harris in Arizona and now leads by 5 points (50% to 45%). In an earlier poll in August, Harris led Arizona by 5 points.

The poll also shows Trump still leading in Georgia (49% to 45%), as well as North Carolina (49% to 47%). A NYT/Siena poll last month showed Harris with a 2-point lead in North Carolina.

Trump will need to win all three key Sun Belt states, as well as Nevada, if he is to have any chance of winning the election.

Harris, for her part, can afford to lose Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada in November if she can claim victory in the three so-called “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, because that would give her the required 270 electoral votes, barring any surprise results elsewhere. 538 currently projects Harris with a slight lead in all three states.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted among 713 registered voters in Arizona, 682 registered voters in Georgia and 682 registered voters in North Carolina from September 17 to 21. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points in Arizona, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points in Georgia and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points in North Carolina.

Harris and Trump's teams were reached for comment by email.

A Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters, also released Tuesday, showed Trump with a 1-point lead over Harris in a full poll that included Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (both 1 percent).

In a two-way race, Harris and Trump are tied with 48% of the vote. In an August Quinnipiac poll, Harris led Trump 49% to 47%.

The latest results also show that the number of likely Harris voters who say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for her has dropped from 75% in August to 70%. By comparison, 71% of likely Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic about supporting him, up from 68% in August.

“In the final stretch of the race to Election Day, all eyes are on which candidate can best stoked the enthusiasm of his supporters to the finish line. A slight shift suggests Harris’s audience isn’t roaring as loudly as it was last month,” said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy.

The poll of 1,728 likely voters nationwide was conducted September 19-22, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

Separately, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed Harris leading Trump 47 percent to 40 percent, up from the five-point lead the vice president held over Trump in a previous poll conducted in September.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,029 U.S. adults was conducted. The results have a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.

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