Kamala Harris should win, but Trump is better for the economy, CFO survey finds

Election polls continue to predict a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, but inside corporate America, top executives are preparing for Harris to become the next president of the United States, according to a new CNBC survey of executives. leaders of the entire economy.

A majority of CFOs (55%) say Harris will win the election, according to the third-quarter CNBC CFO Council Survey. This is a reversal from the previous survey of CFOs conducted in the second quarter (when President Joe Biden was still a candidate) and a majority of CFOs (58%) believed Trump would win. About a third of CFOs (31%) now say Trump will win, while 14% remain uncertain about the election outcome. In the second quarter survey of CFOs, 29% of executives said they were unsure who would win.

More and more people in the business world are convinced Harris will win, with another recent CNBC survey of prominent economists and money managers also considering that election outcome the most likely outcome.

The majority belief that Harris will win comes despite the fact that an equal majority of CFOs (55%) say Trump is better on inflation and the economy. Only 17% of CFOs said Harris had a better plan for the economy. Inflation and interest rates (38%), followed by tax policy and regulation (both at 24%) are the issues cited by CFOs as most important to their business. Trade and tariff policy, which is a key Trump talking point and which some economists believe will lead to higher inflation, was cited by only 7% of CFOs.

The CNBC CFO Council investigation was conducted between August 19 and September 19, a period that included the presidential debate. The survey is a sampling of the views of CFOs from large organizations, with 31 CFOs responding to the third quarter survey.

CFOs expect government to remain divided after the election, with nearly three-quarters (74%) of respondents saying Capitol Hill will be divided. Forty-five percent of CFOs predict that Democrats will keep control of the Senate and the Republican Party will keep control of the House, while 29% expect a change in control between the parties, but that the Hill remains divided.

This week, both candidates made their case on the economy, with Trump dangling new tax incentives for businesses and Harris attempting to sharpen her economic message in a speech to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh and an interview with MSNBC's Stephanie Ruhle Wednesday evening.

Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a speech on the economy during a campaign event, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the United States, September 25, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

CFO's belief that Trump is better on the economy matches the former president's lead in most polls on the issue, although Harris has managed to reverse that trend in some recent polls.

On Wednesday, the Harris campaign released an 82-page economic plan extending its consistent message about an economy designed for middle-class opportunity. In his speech to the Economic Club of Pittsburgh on Wednesday, Harris discussed tax credits for companies that provide union jobs in the city's manufacturing industries, such as metals, including steel, and also attempted to distance herself from the Republican Party's efforts to portray her as an extremist member of the party. left on the economy. “I believe most businesses work hard to do the right thing by their customers and the employees who depend on them,” Harris said. “We need to work with them to grow our economy.”

Harris has called for a corporate tax increase, but not as high as Biden's, as she tries to strike a balance between her economic policy and a plan that would have more centrist appeal. Trump has pledged to cut corporate taxes by up to 20 percent, below the level of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 passed by his administration.

In her interview with Ruhle on MSNBC Wednesday night, Harris said, “I'm not mad at anyone because they're rich, but they should pay their fair share, but tax cuts for billionaires and the biggest companies in our country, and then no. I really pay a lot of attention to middle-class families. My view on the economy is that when the middle class grows, the American economy is stronger. »

Harris has attracted high-level support from within the business community, with billionaire Mark Cuban becoming something of an economic spokesman for her campaign in recent weeks and telling CNBC in a recent interview: “Kamala Harris is pro -business. Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden. They are very, very different. She talks a little about the subject regarding taxes, in particular, but she goes to the center, 100%.

A group of more than 80 business leaders, most of them former high-profile CEOs, recently released a letter endorsing Harris.

Harris highlighted her relationship with big companies in the Ruhle interview, saying she had “spent a lot of time with CEOs.” And I will tell you that business leaders who are actually part of the engine of the American economy agree that people should pay their fair share. They also agree that when we look at a plan like mine, which is investing in the middle class, investing in new industries, investing in cost reduction, investing in entrepreneurs like small businesses, the together is important. the economy is stronger and everyone benefits. »

In a speech Wednesday in Georgia, Trump focused on a key economic issue for CFOs and corporate finance: research and development spending. Trump said he would expand R&D tax credits, allowing U.S.-based operations to fully cover their costs in the first year of operation. This issue was the subject of a key lobbying effort on Capitol Hill for the business sector after the 2017 tax cuts phased out traditional R&D tax credits.

Efforts to restore total R&D spending, coupled with a Democratic push for expanded child tax credits, have had fairly broad bipartisan support among lawmakers, but not enough votes to see new legislation passed by both the House and Senate in several attempts over the past several years. years supported by Biden as well as some high-ranking members of the Republican Party on the Hill, including most recently a failed effort in August.

Several CFOs responding to the survey specifically cited the issue of R&D tax expenditures when discussing their tax priorities in relation to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which expires in 2025. The survey also found that CFOs cite building new factories and facilities, and increasing R&D spending, as top capital spending priorities over the next year.

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