Further down the downstream chain – Editorial

less than a month before leaving office, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo was on a roll last week, visiting several sites, where important milestones of some downstream projects have been reached, simply to show how far the policy works.

This included the inauguration of a copper smelter in Sumbawa, East Nusa Tenggara, and overseeing the launch of copper cathode production in Gresik, East Java, as well as the first injection of bauxite in an alumina smelter in West Kalimantan. The President has inaugurated many similar downstream projects in the past.

Since its inception, the downstream policy, one of Jokowi's signature legacies, has not always been met with such optimism, with frequent complaints about export bans, which have affected foreign buyers and local companies that have not yet completed their foundries. Others have highlighted the environmental and social impacts this has had on local livelihoods.

Despite this, we should give credit to those who deserve it. The industrial swallowing policy has added more value to the country's exports compared to just shipping them in raw form. The trade balance has remained in surplus for more than four consecutive years, which is beneficial for the economy and the rupee exchange rate.

Currently, most of this production comes from nickel and copper, and soon from bauxite. Other downstream projects are already on the table, awaiting approval from the new government. They include other minerals such as gold and tin, as well as products from the agricultural, plantation and perhaps fishing sectors.

However, for downstream policy to be truly worthwhile, we need to go further along the supply chains, because what we produce today in our foundries is just the transformation of raw materials into slightly less crude forms. Additionally, much of the production from local smelters still ends up being exported for processing further along the supply chain.

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Ironically, Indonesia often then imports these products as inputs for domestic industry. In some cases, the country sources fully finished products from foreign factories that have purchased processed minerals from our smelters.

This means we need to build more midstream industries around the products we have already started to process domestically, under the government-led downstream programme.

It will then be necessary to invest more to attract industries which will transform them into semi-finished or finished products. Indonesia has done well in transforming nickel into stainless steel, but it still needs to go further in the planned electric vehicle industry.

Clearly, we also need this type of investment to promote sustainability, whether in the form of the use of clean energy or waste management, as well as the employment of local workers.

At this stage, downstream policy is good, but it will not deliver the industrialization we sorely need to realize our ambition to become a high-income country. The road will not be easy and the dream will only become a reality if efforts continue over the years to bring together the different administrations.

President-elect Prabowo Subianto should consider continuing the devaluation program. Such a commitment is not only intended to ensure continuity in itself, but also to justify the enormous investments made by companies that have placed their trust in the policy and dynamism of the downstream government.

Ultimately, dollars can only do so much to make these things happen, what really matters is the political will of the powers that be to actually want this to happen. Incentives and investments can only follow where the political winds of our leaders take us.

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