Prabowos' defense and foreign policy outlook and choice of his ministers

Prabowo Subianto, who will assume the Indonesian presidency on October 20, will be much more his own minister of defense and foreign affairs than was his predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi). And he is likely to rebalance his policies in favor of national security rather than economic development.

But the ministers who hold those portfolios will also wield great influence, and Prabowo's choices for the role are key questions for Australia.

Given his keen interest in foreign affairs and national security, Prabowo expressed his views. He believes in the importance of military strength and that national security is an integral part of economic prosperity. As Indonesia's current defense minister, he has led efforts to modernize the military. As president, he intends to continue this momentum, working to increase the defense budget from 0.7 to 1.5% of GDP by 2029, by strengthening local defense capabilities, boosting technology transfer and facilitating joint production agreements with partners such as France and South Korea .

If he had not expressed a foreign policy vision too distinct from that of his predecessors, as Minister of Defense he was also more understanding of Australia's decision to enter into the AUKUS agreement. This contrasted with the concern The Foreign Ministry said AUKUS would fuel a regional arms race. In the past he has also critical the Jokowi government's response to Chinese incursions into the Natuna Sea and the use of Chinese workers in Indonesian infrastructure projects, although it has also demonstrated its ability to look the other way on China.

A president's interest in foreign affairs and national security will not necessarily change the direction of Indonesia's foreign policy. But it can help solve a long-standing problem in the absence of a centralized center on foreign and defense policy under Jokowi. Jokowi's lack of interest in foreign affairs has led to fragmented policy execution, with his own disinterest facilitating bureaucratic competition.

But Prabowo's ministers will not be passive implementers. Although they will follow his advice, they will be tasked with the difficult challenge of managing the expectations of the president and the departments and agencies they lead.

With many ministerial posts going to coalition partners, Jokowi will likely appoint close confidants to the four key state offices: interior minister, foreign minister, defense minister and finance minister.

When it comes to foreign policy, the two main candidates are Sugiono and Meutya Hafid, both accompanied Prabowo during his August trip to Canberra. Sugiono is currently one of the vice chairmen of the first committee of the House of Representatives, responsible for foreign policy, defense and security issues. The discreet Sugiono is a long-time Prabowo loyalist and a pillar of the Gerindra Party.

Meutya Hafid chairs the First Committee. A journalist turned politician, she became a household name in Indonesia after being kidnapped by Jaish al-Mujahideen in Iraq in 2005. Since 2019, her role as chair of the first committee has given her the opportunity to lead the committee's agenda to examine the Jokowi government's foreign and defense policy. She is also an alumna of the University of New South Wales, so she has a direct connection to Australia.

Another candidate who is not a career diplomat is Fadli Zon, a prominent cultural and parliamentarian who has been a close confidant of Prabowos since the 1990s. Fadli is known for his fiery and nationalist rhetoric, having raised concerns related to Jokowi governments. deepen China's economic engagement and its management of Conflicts in the South China Seaespecially during Jokowi's first term, when Prabowo was in opposition.

Other potential candidates for foreign minister include career diplomats Arif Havas Oegresono and Abdul Kadir Jailani, ambassador to Germany and director general for Asia-Pacific and African Affairs, respectively. Indonesia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Arrmanatha Nasir, is also known to be in the running. Even if these individuals do not become foreign minister, a person may become deputy foreign minister, given that their bureaucratic and diplomatic experiences are crucial in supporting someone appointed by a minister outside the foreign ministry.

Any non-diplomat who becomes foreign minister would be the first to do so since 2001.

None of these candidates has publicly offered a particular vision for Indonesian foreign policy, and it remains unlikely that we will see a sea change in Indonesia's approach unless Prabowo demands it.

He is also likely to appoint a close confidant as defense minister, who will administer and manage Prabowo's ambitious goals for the armed forces during his presidency.

The leading candidate for defense minister is Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, who served as deputy defense minister under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Sjafrie, a close aide and former military academy classmate of Prabowo, served as an advisor to the new president during Prabowo's tenure as defense minister. Privately, Sjafrie has already been introduced to some foreign leaders as a future defense minister. However, it is also possible that Sjafrie will be assigned to other important positions in the government, such as minister of the secretariat of state or head of national intelligence.

Other potential candidates for the post of Defense Minister are Lieutenant General Muhammad Herindra and Air Marshal Donny Ermawan, Deputy Defense Minister and Secretary General of the Ministry of Defense respectively. Both worked closely with Prabowo and were instrumental in implementing his defensive vision.

Making predictions is always risky. We are less than a month away from Prabowos' inauguration, and the horse-trading will likely continue until the day he takes office.