Why Turkey sees an opportunity in the Iran-Israel conflict

As the specter of conflict looms between Israel and Lebanon, Turkey is poised to play a precarious role in the ongoing dynamic. Historically, Ankara has sought to limit Iranian influence in the region while maintaining a complex relationship with Hezbollah, Iran's main proxy in Lebanon. As tensions escalate, Turkey's actions will be driven not only by its regional ambitions, but also by its long-standing rivalry with Israel.

Historical context and current situation of the turkey

Turkey has traditionally engaged with Lebanon to establish diplomatic relations, but has strategically kept Hezbollah at arm's length. This calculated distance reflects Ankara's broader interest in reducing Tehran's influence. Following the October 7 terrorist attacks, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a clearly anti-Israeli stance, signaling his willingness to exploit the situation to undermine Israel's position. Sinan Ciddi, a nonresident senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, notes that Erdogan's public statements since the attacks underscore Turkey's intention to rally anti-Israel sentiment within the Islamic world.

On June 25, 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan issued a stern warning to Cyprus over its support for Israel, accusing Nicosia of serving as Israel's operational center. Fidan claimed that Turkey frequently receives intelligence suggesting that some countries are using the Greek Cypriot administration in southern Cyprus as a base for their operations in Gaza. This indicates Turkey's desire to position itself as protector of regional interests, particularly Hezbollah and Lebanon, while also seeking to diplomatically isolate Israel.

Turkey's pragmatic approach towards Iran and Hezbollah

Despite its strategic caution, Turkey's past actions reveal a complex relationship with Hezbollah and Iran. In January 2024, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned several Turkish entities for providing critical financial support to networks used by the Iranian Quds Force and Hezbollah. These sanctions highlight a troubling aspect of Turkey's foreign policy: its commercial engagement with designated terrorist entities. Notably, in December 2022, Turkish national Sitki Ayan, closely linked to Erdogan, was sanctioned for facilitating the sale of Iranian oil, the proceeds of which benefited Iran's military and terrorist activities.

Turkey's willingness to ignore these associations demonstrates a pragmatic approach to regional alliances. Even if Ankara does not align with Iran's broader regional ambitions, it is ready to collaborate with any entity that can help diminish Israel's influence. Erdogan's moves in Iran, including direct communications with former President Ebrahim Raisi, further underscore Turkey's goal of uniting the Islamic world against Israel.

Are you in between?

One important possibility is Turkey's contribution to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), positioning them along the Israeli-Lebanese border. The move could serve several purposes: deterring Israeli military action against Turkish forces while simultaneously providing protection to Lebanon and Hezbollah. Ciddi suggests that Turkey could use this position to negotiate concessions from Iran, particularly regarding Syria and the return of Syrian refugees currently in Turkey.

However, the question remains: does Turkey have the diplomatic credibility to negotiate such an arrangement? Although Turkey's involvement could increase its influence in Lebanon, it is unclear whether Iran and Hezbollah would be willing to avoid conflict in exchange for Turkish support.

Implications of Turkey's ambitions

Turkey's maneuvers in a context of escalating tensions must be carefully scrutinized. Erdogan's administration appears less interested in fostering peace and more focused on facilitating Israel's humiliation on the international stage. Ragip Soylu Looking at the Middle East stresses that Turkey's measured response to the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah suggests a cautious alignment with Iran, which seeks to counterbalance Tehran's influence in the region.

Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution adds that although Turkey's support for Hezbollah is tempered by its Sunni identity and past grievances, the weakening of Iran and its proxies could ultimately create opportunities for Turkey to assert greater influence in Syria and Iraq. Erdogan's delicate balancing act will therefore remain crucial as the conflict unfolds.