Warning: Given Trump's Age, President Vance Is a Real Possibility

Are vice presidential debates important? Conventional wisdom says no. Historically, polls have shown that these 90 minutes every four years have little effect on how people will vote in the presidential election.

Tuesday night's debate between Democratic candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and his Republican opponent, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, appears to follow that pattern. Some pundits said Vance, who delivered a polished, unflappable performance, won the debate; Walz seemed more nervous and fumbled several questions, although he lied far less often, according to fact-checkers. Walz also scored big at the end, when he pushed Vance to confirm that President Biden won the 2020 election and called Vance's deviation a damning non-answer.

According to a post-debate snap poll, most voters viewed the debate as a tie, and both men saw increases in their favorable ratings, although this is unlikely to change the fact that Walz's numbers are unusually high while Vance's are remarkably low.

As previously noted, none of these are likely to matter in November.

Except for one thing. One very important and rarely discussed thing: if Donald Trump wins, Vance could very well become president. Which should be concerning given how historically low Vance's approval ratings have been: Before the debate, Vance was more unpopular than any vice presidential pick in modern history, including Sarah Palin, who is often credited with helping John McCain lose his election in 2008.

Vance would, after all, be a heartbeat away from the presidency. And if he wins, Trump, aged 78, would, at the end of his term, become the oldest president to ever hold the office.

And Trump's recent rambling and absurd speeches, as well as his decision to decline a second debate with his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, and to withdraw from a scheduled 60 Minutes interview, indicate that he may -already struggling with problems with cognition and/or endurance, in addition to the strategic reasons underlying choices.

In addition to the regular nonsense about sharks and Hannibal Lecter, and the outrageous lies that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eat their neighbors' dogs and cats, Trump recently blamed the president of North Korea for trying to kill him (he appears to have confused North Korea with Iran) and admitted that he does not know what Congo is (even though he falsely claimed that many people from there- low flood the United States)

Needless to say, if Harris said any of these things, the press would ask him to step down. This is precisely what happened after President Biden, much less dramatically, missed his June debate against Trump.

In Biden's absence on the campaign trail, Trump and Vance have attacked Harris' policies, which honestly show a shocking ignorance of the vice president's role.

Those of us who have taken a high school civics class or seen at least one episode of The West Wing or Veep understand that the primary function of the vice president is to support the president, occasionally replace him, and, most of the time, to replace it. It is important to assume the office of president in the event of the death or incapacity of the president.

Even if Trump's notable lack of consistency and energy is not an indication of mental or physical decline, the fact remains that Vance is, based on Trump's age alone, among the candidates to the vice presidency the most likely to be called upon to fill this role in history. of the republic.

For the record:

4:53 p.m., October 2, 2024 An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that JD Vance wrote the introduction to Project 2025. He wrote the introduction to a book by Project 2025 architect Kevin Roberts.

Yes, the guy who wrote the introduction to a book by one of the architects of Project 2025, who doesn't trust people who don't have children, who admitted that racist stories about the Haitian community of Springfield were false but still spread them, who thinks women should stay in abusive relationships for the sake of their families and that the solution to our child care problem is grandma and who called rape inconvenience. This guy could very well become our president.

So the Tuesday night debate should be seen less as Vance taking on Walz and more as Vance offering insight into himself as leader of the free world.

As many have said in praising his performance, Vance offered a more refined version of Trump's many ill-considered policies (tariffs, Project 2025), misinterpretations (e.g. on administration responsibility Biden in inflation) and outright lies (claiming that violent crime is violent crime). for example, or that most Americans support draconian abortion laws.)

More importantly, by refusing to contradict Trump's big lie about the 2020 election, Vance has told us just about everything we need to know about his potential presidency. As one undecided Michigan voter told CNN after the debate: “I don't think I can trust someone with my vote if they don't respect it.”

When Biden defeated Trump in 2020, many feared that MAGA Republicans would then find a candidate who would champion the same nationalist, elitist, and divisive agenda, but without the orange makeup, numerous lawsuits, and tendency to engage in Narcissistic and often confusing diatribes. .

Based on the vice presidential debate, it appears that is the case.

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