Can the United States still prevent a war between Israel and Iran?

In the year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel has gone from looking more vulnerable than it had in half a century, when it nearly lost the Israeli-Israeli war. “Arab War of 1973, to dramatically restore its strategic advantage against Iran and its proxies and, like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin,” Netanyahu declared, thus shifting the balance of power in the region for years to come in his favor .

This, in summary, is the conclusion of many military and national security experts after several months of devastating and mostly unanswered Israeli attacks. Since the spring, these operations have killed senior commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); eliminated the political leader of Hamas in the heart of Tehran and its chief general in Gaza; and with an incredibly rapid series of sophisticated strikes that neutralized and decapitated Hezbollah.

In the year since the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel has gone from looking more vulnerable than it had in half a century, when it nearly lost the Israeli-Israeli war. “Arab War of 1973, to dramatically restore its strategic advantage against Iran and its proxies and, like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin,” Netanyahu declared, thus shifting the balance of power in the region for years to come in his favor .

This, in summary, is the conclusion of many military and national security experts after several months of devastating and mostly unanswered Israeli attacks. Since the spring, these operations have killed senior commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC); eliminated the political leader of Hamas in the heart of Tehran and its chief general in Gaza; and with an incredibly rapid series of sophisticated strikes that neutralized and decapitated Hezbollah.

On Tuesday, Israel's military and technological dominance was further reaffirmed when Iran, in retaliation after months of hesitation, failed to kill or even seriously injure a single Israeli (the only reported death was a Palestinian in Jericho) despite a ballistic missile attack of unprecedented scale on Israeli airbases and bases. Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv. This success is largely due to Israel's advanced multi-layered air defense systems.

But it is perhaps only now that the real tests must take place, both military and diplomatic. Israel will certainly retaliate directly against Iran following Tehran's latest missile attack. But the decision he must make is whether to maintain the status quo as he resumes clearing out Hamas in Gaza and neutralizing Hezbollah on the ground in Lebanon, or whether to take the fight to Iranian regime itself, including against its leaders and possibly against its nuclear program.

And for the United States, Israel's number one ally, the question is whether US President Joe Biden and his vice president, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, can prevent such a politically dangerous escalation just a little further away. one month before the very close American presidential election. election.

On Tuesday, Harris' Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, said the Iranian missile strike against Israel only exposed the Biden-Harris administration's lack of leadership and pushed the world closer of a global catastrophe.

Many in Israel, suddenly full of confidence a year after the start of what is now seen as an existential struggle against Iran and its proxies, now want a broader war against Tehran. For Israel, judgment day has arrived, said Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA officer now at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). The grand deployment argument is now more widespread in Israel. October 7 and [Iranian Supreme Leader Ali] Khameneis' subsequent boldness likely changed Israelis' risk tolerance.

Many Israel hawks, such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, believe that Iran's brazen willingness to fire ballistic missiles directly at Israel, not once but twice since a retaliatory attack in April, should be the trigger of a decisive response eliminating any strategic threat from Tehran.

Israel now has its greatest opportunity in 50 years: to change the face of the Middle East, Bennett posted on X on October 1. We have the justification. We have the tools. Now that Hezbollah and Hamas are crippled, Iran is exposed.

I think it's fair to say that if the Israelis don't do much after Iran's second invitation, then they have accepted the Iranian bomb, said Gerecht, who also considers an attack on Iran's nuclear program as a strategic imperative. Israel faces a puzzling question: If it hits Iran significantly (oil industry, military facilities, top leaders including Khamenei) but does not attack the nuclear weapon infrastructure, then it could hurt the theocracy but leave the only weapon intact. this may deter Israel from further retaliation against Iranian machinations.

But such an escalation is the last kind of response Biden and Harris want to see right now. A proverbial October surprise, this would result in a major regional war that would almost certainly drain the U.S. military and possibly cause American casualties, jeopardizing Harris's chances on November 5. The main diplomatic question, then, is whether Biden can muster the influence needed to prevent an escalating series of Israeli strikes against Iran's leaders or its critical infrastructure, which would mean all-out war.

Indeed, it is very possible that Iran timed and calibrated its Tuesday attack knowing that Biden and Harris would be working overtime to avoid a broader war. I think the Iranians are counting on a Hail Mary from the United States to prevent all-out war, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior researcher at FDD and an expert on Iranian missile capabilities.

The last few months give little hope that American diplomacy can progress, especially since Biden became a lame duck by announcing on July 21 that he would ultimately not seek a second term at the age of 81. Even before that, Netanyahu openly manipulated the US president, repeatedly ignoring US calls for restraint and appearing to accept and then undermine a US ceasefire proposal for Gaza.

Yet for most of the past year at least, Netanyahu appeared to bow to U.S. calls not to open a new front against Hezbollah and Lebanon. All this ended in September when, without even informing Washington of its plans, Israel opened this front by technologically sabotaging Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, killing at least 42 people and injuring thousands. He then assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and a senior IRGC commander, Abbas Nilforoushan, and followed up with a limited ground invasion, which is underway.

For Biden, the biggest problem is that Washington is backed into a corner, said Nimrod Novik, a former senior adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres. Any show of clarity between the United States and Israel is bound to embolden all countries hostile to Iran, including. Washington must therefore stand by Israel even when it attacks, even if so far, every American statement has emphasized its commitment to defending Israel in the event of attack.

And whatever Israel does now, Ben Taleblu said, I think it will be huge. Despite avoiding the type of Israeli casualties that would certainly have triggered an all-out war between Iran and Israel, Tehran crossed a red line by launching the largest barrage of ballistic missiles in history against another country, a added Ben Taleblu.

Analysts say that overall, Tehran has sought to carefully calibrate its response to Israeli attacks, particularly with a new, more moderate government led by President Masoud Pezeshkian seeking to reopen nuclear negotiations with the United States in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Pezeshkian's vice president for strategic affairs, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was Iran's chief negotiator on the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Although Tuesday's missile attack involved greater firepower, consisting entirely of some 180 ballistic missiles fueled by higher-grade solid propellant and giving fewer hours of notice than the April attack, it It was also clear that Tehran was seeking to preserve the balance of its enormous arsenal, estimated at around 3,000 missiles. Iran has also tried to argue, as it did in April, that the cycle of escalation must now end.

In essence, Tehran is signaling to Israel that it would be OK with limited exchanges targeting military targets, said Hussein Banai, a researcher at Indiana University and co-author of Republics of Myth: National Narratives and the US- Iran Conflict. So if Israel retaliates in the same way, then I think Khamenei and Co. will be happy to leave it there. But this is a crucial decision point for [Netanyahu]. If he chooses to go beyond the scale of the Iranian attack in retaliation for [Tuesdays] missile attacks from Tehran, this could then force Tehran to abandon its strategy of controlled escalation.

Still, the Biden administration may have more leverage on this issue than against Israeli operations along its borders. A broader war with Tehran would require far greater military and intelligence cooperation. And many within Israel's national security apparatus are wary of overconfidence and hubris, especially knowing that the work against Hamas and Hezbollah is far from done.

They are experienced, thoughtful and sober professionals, Novik said. They know how powerful we are but know the limits of our power. Furthermore, unlike Netanyahu, they have nothing but respect for the US defense establishment, appreciate the unprecedented aid provided by the Biden administration, and take seriously the need to coordinate closely with Washington on issues affecting American national security.

On Wednesday, Biden told reporters he would not support an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. He said the United States and its Western allies were considering new sanctions on Iran, although U.S. officials say they also expect some sort of Israeli military response.

We will discuss with the Israelis what they are going to do, Biden said, adding that he and other G7 leaders agree they have the right to respond, but they must respond proportionately. We give them advice. I will talk to [Netanyahu] relatively early.

The coming days and weeks will tell whether this advice will be followed or whether a more serious war will ensue.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/02/israel-iran-hezbollah-war-us-leverage-biden/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos