Iran-Israel conflict could harm India's oil supplies, Modi discusses at key meeting

As the world fears a clash between Iran and Israel in West Asia, India is beginning to consider how the conflict could harm its trade and oil imports.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Friday chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to assess the ongoing crisis in West Asia and its potential impact on India, news agency ANI reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. .

Senior ministers and officials were present at the meeting chaired by the prime minister to discuss the regional conflict, sources close to the matter said.
India's crude oil supply and trade is likely to be affected and there is a risk of price hikes in the international market in the event of war.

Iran remains one of India's top oil exporters, and New Delhi also maintains trade ties with Israel, making the subcontinent vulnerable to negative trade impacts from both sides.

“The crisis in West Asia and its possible impact on India was discussed in the meeting. Apart from senior ministers, officers were also present. Due to the crisis in West Asia, there is a possibility that the supply of crude oil in India will be affected and prices will increase in the international market,” a source familiar with the matter told news agency ANI. Fears of a wider conflict in West Asia have increased after Iran launched direct missile attacks on Israel last week. New Delhi has expressed concerns over the conflict and said it should not take a broader form.

Israel-Iran Conflict Intensifies: Crude Oil Prices Could Soar, Economist Says

Market fears are growing that Israel could target Iranian oil infrastructure, raising the specter of retaliation from Iran. There are fears that such an escalation could prompt Iran to block oil from the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, prices rose on Thursday due to investors' fears that the worsening conflict in the Middle East could disrupt crude oil flows from the region.

Iran versus Israel: India's oil stakes

India relies heavily on oil and gas imports from the Middle East, despite an increase in oil imports from Russia.

Data shows that the share of Russian oil in Indian imports fell to around 36% in August, from 44% in July. Meanwhile, the share of Middle East oil in India's crude imports reached 44.6% in August, up from 40.3% in September.

Major suppliers in the Middle East, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, play a crucial role in meeting India's energy demand.

Additionally, India depends on Qatar for almost half of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) needs, having recently reached a $78 billion deal to extend LNG imports for another 20 years.

The prospect of a full-scale war between Iran and Israel poses serious risks to India's energy supply chains. A conflict involving Iran's allies, such as Hezbollah and the Houthis, could disrupt critical oil routes, including the Red Sea and the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

If tensions escalate, India may have to reroute its oil shipments from Russia to the longer route via the Cape of Good Hope, which could increase costs and delivery times.

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