Earthquakes: Can a warning system save New Zealand from major earthquakes?

But for scientists, the event produced a treasure trove of valuable data that brought us a small step closer to answering a long-standing question: Can we warn people before a major disaster strikes?

When the quake's initial “P waves” rippled across the ground — seconds before the “S waves” that cause devastating tremors — they were successfully picked up by low-cost seismic stations set up by researchers in people's homes throughout the Lower North Island.

Building on this work, Chanthujan Chandrakumar of Massey University and colleagues recently scanned a decade of Canterbury earthquake data to identify a specific P-wave threshold, at which an early warning system might be triggered.

Such systems have the potential to save a few critical seconds to stop trains, close gas valves, shut down machinery — and ultimately save lives, Chandrakumar said.

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Scientists predict that we will never be able to predict earthquakes as accurately as we do the weather, but warning people the moment they happen is already a reality.

There is perhaps no more impressive example than Japan's highly sophisticated, billion-dollar network, which immediately issued tsunami warnings as soon as the devastating 9.1-magnitude earthquake struck the country in 2011, helping 90% of people near the epicenter. To take action to save themselves.

Likewise, New Zealand faces the catastrophic threat of a rapid-fire tsunami off our coast, as well as the ever-present danger posed by the network of fault lines that run through our country.

But unlike Japan and a handful of other countries like China, Taiwan and South Korea, we do not have a state-funded system.

The closest possibility here is a Google app that sends messages to Android users before the shaking starts – based on phone data rather than local sensors – and a privately run network used by some councils, ports and energy companies.

Google's Android app, based on phone data rather than GeoNet sensors, is the closest thing New Zealanders have to a personally accessible earthquake early warning system – but it has caused confusion in previous events here.

Not surprisingly, one of the biggest barriers to establishing a national network is cost.

It would likely take tens of millions of dollars to set up and operate — and require a massive upgrade to the GeoNet network that many of us turn to for quick information about earthquakes — though some experts have pointed to the potential for mass deployment of cheaper sensors like those used in Chandrakumar's study.

Another major obstacle is our complex tectonic situation, which means we cannot simply adopt methods and technology used abroad, said Dr Anna Kaiser, a seismologist at GNS.

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But there was a lot of groundwork that scientists could do now to prepare the country for this system.

While researchers like Chandrakumar's group were exploring methods under a government-funded program, GNS was running its own project to rapidly characterize earthquakes.

One tool, called FinDer, has already been trialled on earthquakes as large as last week and has been successfully simulated in major events such as the Canterbury and Kaikoura events.

The next steps after these pilot studies will bring scientists together to design a national system, something that also requires close government involvement and investment, Kaiser said.

So far, there is no indication that the government is ready to take this step.

Earlier this year, John Price, director of civil defense and emergency management at the National Emergency Management Agency, pointed out to RNZ that implementing early warning systems is often expensive and can provide little or no warning in some cases.

“Any earthquake early warning system will need to work with Aotearoa's geography, population distribution, and emergency response systems, and will need to balance the cost of building and maintaining such a system against the benefits of receiving early warnings.”

Will the Kiwi do the right thing?

The other question is whether New Zealanders will use the system properly – and studies suggest there is still a long way to go.

When researchers recently surveyed Kiwis on the Google app, they found that 86% said they would protect themselves if they received a prompt from it – yet only 5% of those who received an alert immediately took the right step of dropping, covering and waiting.

Another big problem is low public awareness about the systems — most who received Google alerts thought they were coming from a government agency — and what they can and cannot do.

Dr Lauren Fennell, from the Joint Massey Center for Disaster Research, said: 'In particular, these systems can fail to detect earthquakes – and the closer you are to the epicenter, the less likely you are to get a warning.'

Massey University researcher Dr Lauren Fennell.

“Without knowing these limitations, people may rely on getting a warning and not taking action when they feel an earthquake starting.”

She said early warnings could still actually prevent many of the injuries that accompany earthquakes, such as sending people falling to the ground before they are knocked off their feet by the shaking.

“However, this requires people to notice the alert, process what it means, choose how to respond and then take that action — and that's a lot to ask in probably just seconds,” she said.

“In many places in the world, public earthquake early warning systems are still new and evolving – so we don't have much evidence of their benefits yet.”

Jamie Morton specializes in science and environmental reporting. He joined the Herald in 2011 and writes about everything from environmental conservation and climate change to natural hazards and new technology.

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