American dockworkers have ended their strike but the conflict is not over yet | US ports strike 2024

The Biden administration breathed a sigh of relief Thursday when the union representing port workers called off a strike that threatened massive disruption to cargo just weeks before the November election.

But the conflict between the International Longshore Association (ILA) and the country's port operators is not yet over and could give whoever wins the White House their first political crisis in January.

The agreement to cancel the industrial action expires on January 15 and if a new contract is not agreed by then the ILA could take further action. The impact of which is likely to be felt worldwide.

As many Americans have learned during the pandemic, the supply chain is somewhat fragile.

Imported goods manufactured overseas are packed into huge shipping containers that travel the seas to reach American shores. Once at the port, the containers are removed from the ships and stored in warehouses. The goods are then transported by truck or train to arrive at their destination.

If part of the chain is interrupted, ripple effects can occur.

That’s why the dockers’ strike that started Tuesday was so important. Goods shipped to a U.S. East Coast or Gulf port could not move until the strike was called off.

The first of its kind since 1977, the dock strike likely cost the economy at least $5 billion per day.

The ILA, which represents 45,000 workers across 36 ports, is demanding higher wages and banning automation and semi-automation at ports as a job protection measure.

The union and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), a consortium of carriers and terminal operators, reached a tentative agreement to raise wages by 62 percent over six years. Other issues, including automation, remain unresolved.

As negotiations continue, here's more on what's at stake for the U.S. economy.

This strike ended after three days. What happened?

For most Americans, the impacts of the strike were minimal.

Companies knew the strike was a possibility for at least a few weeks, said Keely Croxton, a logistics professor at Ohio State University, and ramped up shipments and sped up the unloading of containers from ships before the strike.

What happens if a new strike lasts more than two weeks?

Goods entering ports on the East Coast and Gulf largely come from Europe and South and Central America. The strike does not affect cruise ships or military goods.

That means some fresh fruits and vegetables transported in refrigerated containers could be hit first if the strike lasts more than two weeks. For example, a large portion of bananas consumed in the United States come from South and Central America. When the supply of bananas already in transit through ports begins to dwindle, grocery store inventory may be affected.

But economists say only parts of grocery store shelves could disappear.

It would be selective at first. The broader macroeconomic impact wouldn't start to be felt unless it lasted for a very long time, said Michael Pearce, deputy chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. If you start to have a strike that lasts three to four weeks, that's when you start to see a more prolonged period of disruption that we may need to start to worry about in terms of the wider impact on the economy.

If a strike lasts more than a few weeks, carriers might try to start shipping goods through West Coast ports. Price increases could come from carriers passing the costs on to consumers, Pearce said.

Economists point out that the impacts of a strike would be different from those seen during the pandemic, when widespread shortages occurred, first driven by panic buying and then continued as parts of the supply chain were disrupted by confinements.

Businesses would be better prepared for that than the pandemic, Croxton said. Businesses have learned from the pandemic and developed a more robust sourcing and distribution strategy, and found ways to be more flexible to respond to disruptions like this.

How would this affect other workers?

Workers in other areas of the supply chain could see the most immediate impact, Pearce said. If the number of goods moving through the supply chain slows down, so will their work.

Those jobs in warehousing logistics, shipping wholesalers and those that rely on the flow of goods moving through ports, there will be a disruption to those businesses, Pearce said. If this lasts more than a week or so, you'll start to see reports of temporary furloughs or layoffs in these industries.

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