The Polymarket bubble: everyone is betting on the US elections

On Sunday, a quote-tweet from Musk caused former President Donald Trump's election odds to skyrocket on election betting platform Polymarket.

Trump now leads Kamala by 3% in betting markets, Musk wrote. More accurate than polls because real money is at stake.

The day after Musk's tweet, Trump gained nearly 10 points on the platform.

These are not real polls. Polymarket is a decentralized betting marketplace that works similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, except bettors can bet on almost anything. This year, however, one of the most popular markets is predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The company is leaning into it, constantly posting election updates on its X account and responding to Musk.

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Polymarket has had a lot of success this year. Pro-Trump billionaire Peter Thiel and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin announced they had raised around $70 million to fund the company last May. The site's monthly traffic grew to about 20 times what it was at the time of the investment, according to Similarweb data.

Betting markets also scored a big victory earlier this month when a US appeals court gave Kalshi, a predictions start-up, the green light to propose to the markets which party would take power in Congress next year. next year. Even if the case isn't completely resolved, it likely won't be decided until Election Day. This means that election markets are here to stay, much to the delight of political influencers and elites like Musk online.

As of Wednesday afternoon, other betting sites, PredictIt and Kalshi, had a lead of one to three points for Vice President Kamala Harris. Unlike Polymarket, these alternatives limit bettors to placing no more than $1,000 on elections. They are also subject to American regulations. Being located overseas, Polymarket is free from these same constraints, and punters can bet millions of dollars on the outcome of the election without anyone knowing who they are. Which means that even though US-based punters are formally banned from the site, simply downloading a VPN can get around the rules.

Yet Polymarket has made a name for itself across the aisle. In August, Polymarket hosted a party at the Democratic National Convention. The guest list at the event was impressive: it included White House domestic policy director Neera Tanden, Olivia Rodrigo's producer ex-boyfriend Adam Faze, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who supported a number of pro-crypto bills in the Senate.

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