Trump versus Harris: who is leading in US election polls as the vote approaches? | US Election News 2024

With less than two weeks until Election Day in the United States, polling averages show that the two leading presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, are actually tied in most swing states.

To win, a candidate must obtain 270 of the 538 electoral votes up for grabs. Electoral College votes are distributed among states based on their relative populations.

Who is in the lead?

According to daily election poll tracker FiveThirtyEights, as of Wednesday, Vice President Harris is leading in national polls and has a 1.9 percentage point lead over former President Trump.

According to various recent polls, including one by the Washington Post released Monday, 47 percent of registered voters indicated they would definitely or probably vote for Harris, the Democratic Party nominee. The same percentage expressed support for Trump, the Republican Party nominee.

By contrast, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Tuesday showed Harris with a slight lead over Trump, at 46 percent, compared to Trump's 43 percent.

President Joe Biden defeated Trump by 306 votes to 232 in the Electoral College and had a 4% margin in the popular vote. If the national electoral margin is narrower in 2024, that's good news for Trump, even if he trails Harris. Candidates have won the presidency before despite their recent popular vote loss to Trump in 2016, but never by as wide a margin as in 2020.

But ultimately, it is the Electoral College that determines the winner of the election, not the national popular vote. Most states lean heavily, or very clearly, toward Republicans or Democrats.

Seven swing states, also known as battleground states, will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 elections. These are states where the competition is particularly close.

What do the polls say about swing states?

The seven swing states are Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6 ). Together, they represent 93 Electoral College votes.

But FiveThirtyEight's recent survey average puts Harris and Trump within the margin of polling error in each of those seven states. While Trump leads by about a percentage point or a little more in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, the other four states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, are even closer, with less than half a percentage point separating the former president from Harris. While Trump is slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, Harris is ahead of him in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.

If the slim margins captured by the polling averages hold on election night, Trump is favored to win. But even the slightest gap in these key states or an underestimation of Harris' support in the polls could lead to a victory for the vice president.

In the 2020 presidential election, Georgia, where Trump is currently in the lead, flipped from Republican red to Democratic blue after nearly three decades of voting Republican, and in Arizona, where Trump is also in the lead, Democrats have won by a slim margin of 0.3 percentage points.

How reliable are polls?

Election polls predict how the population might vote by surveying a sample of voters. Surveys are most often conducted by telephone or online. In some cases, it is by mail or in person.

Survey trackers, which aggregate a number of surveys, are weighted based on a number of factors, such as the sample size of the survey, the quality of the interviewer, the date the survey survey was carried out and specific methodologies used.

Trust in public opinion polls was undermined by inaccuracies in 2016 and 2020, according to a Pew Research Center study. In both general elections, many polls failed to accurately measure support for candidates Republicans, including Trump.

Pollsters were wrong again in the 2022 midterm elections. Only this time, they underestimated support for Democrats and predicted a Republican victory, only to be wrong.

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