What a Trump victory for abortion would mean

Since the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade two years ago, 21 states either tightened restrictions on abortion or banned it in almost all circumstances. Today, in the first presidential election since the Supreme Court struck down the constitutional right to abortion, voters will decide whether to re-elect the man who vindicated that decision.

Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump credited his role in the decision, as he named three of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe in 2022. He called the flood of state-level restrictions States which followed great thing to watch. But as he seeks a second term amid polls showing Americans largely support legal abortion, he has tried to soften his stance. He said he would not push for a national ban on abortion as president.

President Trump has long supported states' rights to make decisions about abortion and has made it clear he will NOT sign a federal ban upon his return to the White House, said Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary. of the Trump campaign. in a statement to TIME.

Yet Trump has repeatedly refused to say whether he would veto a nationwide ban if it were on his desk as president, a highly unlikely scenario unless Republicans secure significant majorities in both chambers of Congress. The Trump campaign did not answer this question in its statement.

Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump's Democratic opponent, has argued that Trump would further restrict abortion rights if re-elected. And reproductive rights advocates, medical providers and politicians have sounded the alarm about how restrictions on abortion can prevent people from receiving medical care, even in situations where their lives are at risk. in danger.

Over the years, Trump has flip-flopped on his exact position on the issue of abortion. Although he said in a 1999 interview on NBC News Meet the Press that he was very pro-choice, in 2011 he described himself as pro-life. While president in 2017, he supported a bill that would have banned abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy. In March 2024, Trump suggested he would support a 15-week nationwide ban, with exceptions for cases of rape, incest or when the pregnant person's life is in danger.

He has changed his mind several times on abortion, says GOP consultant Barrett Marson. I don't think Americans know whether Donald Trump has a strong, established position on abortion, so predicting what he would do with a possible abortion law, however improbable, reaching his desk, I don't think we can predict that.

Many reproductive rights advocates, medical providers and politicians believe Trump would seek to impose a federal ban on abortion despite his recent statements. They cite Trump's past support for domestic restrictions and his connection to Project 2025, a presidential transition and policy proposal led by the right-wing think tank Heritage Foundation that proposes cracking down on abortion pills. Even though Trump has distanced himself from the playbook, Project 2025 has ties to Trump and his campaign.

I wouldn't base any assessment of what a Trump presidency might look like based on what he says today, says Deirdre Schifeling, policy and advocacy manager for the American Civil Liberties Union. If you look at what he's done in the past, it's because of him that we don't have the same type of protection and access to abortion today that we had 50 years ago.

Some Trump allies and anti-abortion activists say Trump will stick to his position of now leaving abortion policy up to the states. Kristan Hawkins, president of the anti-abortion group Students for Life Action, says she [takes] President Trump has said he wants to end the federal connection to abortion, adding that his organization can work with him on that.

The former president said he would be a protector of women. His campaign platform asserts that he and the Republican Party proudly stand up for families and lives and that states are free to pass laws protecting their rights. He says he and the Republican Party will oppose late-term abortion, while supporting mothers and policies that advance prenatal care, access to birth control and IVF (fertility treatments).

Trump's running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has already voted against a bill that would have increased access to in vitro fertilization (IVF) and other fertility treatments. Vance also previously supported banning abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest, but has since aligned himself with Trump's position that the issue should be left to the states.

Read more: What a Kamala Harris victory for abortion would mean

Trump has been criticized for his inflammatory rhetoric and false statements about abortion this election cycle. He has repeatedly accused, without evidence, Democrats of supporting abortion after birth (it is not abortion, but infanticide, which is a crime everywhere in the United States). Meanwhile, Harris has presented herself as a champion of reproductive rights, pledging to restore the protections guaranteed by Roe and gaining support from organizations like the Planned Parenthood Action Fund (PPAF).

Even if Trump doesn't sign a national ban, he could take other actions as president that could impact abortion. Since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization overturned Roe, state-level abortion restrictions have often been fought in court. By the end of Trump's presidency in 2021, he had appointed 28% of all active federal judges, filling the bench with conservative jurists who now wield significant power over abortion laws. The appointment of federal judges is a truly lasting legacy of the president that spans at least decades, Marson says.

What is clear is that voters' choice for the 47th president will have a major effect on abortion policy, which is as volatile as it has been in nearly 50 years. Melanie Newman, senior vice president of communications and culture at PPAF, says: The stakes are truly extraordinarily high.

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