Joe Biden's big mistake: how the war in Ukraine became a global disaster | Simon Tisdal

A.reflecting the instincts of a Cold War veteran, Joe Biden's strategy was familiar: contain the conflict. When the US president spoke in Warsaw in March 2022, a month after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he drew a red line at the feet of Vladimir Putin. Don't even think about moving a single inch of NATO territory.he warned.

Western allies would provide weapons and aid to kyiv, impose drastic economic and financial sanctions on Moscow and reduce the ruble to rubble, Biden promised. Although not a member of NATO, the United States would help Ukraine win this symbolic battle for freedom and democracy. But it would not directly confront Russia unless Russia attacked NATO first.

Thirty months later, Biden's containment strategy is failing miserably. Like an untreated cancer, the Ukrainian crisis is metastasizing uncontrollably. Far from being limited to the mud and ice of Donbass, the wars are spreading and the toxic fallout is becoming more destructive on a global scale by the day. It contaminates and destroys everything it touches. It is true that a hot war between Russia and NATO has so far been avoided. Yet Polish and Romanian territory was affected by stray missiles and maritime attacks. The entire Black Sea region is in trouble, as is Belarus. Putin says the West is already waging a war against Russia and threatens him with nuclear weapons. The propagandists swear to vaporize Poland.

The crisis has triggered divisions between the United States and Europe within NATO and the EU. Rows erupt over sending troops and long-range missiles to Ukraine, inviting kyiv to join the alliance and forging a distinct European defense identity. France's new hawkish position is canceled out by German caution.

Neutral Sweden and Finland were panicked when joining NATO. The Baltic republics fear new Russian aggression. Hungary and Serbia calms down the Kremlin. Italy is faltering. Nobody feels safe.

The war is fueling political extremism from right to left as support for populist apologists paid by Putin grows. In Moldova, last weekend's referendum on EU membership was grossly distorted by what its president, Maia Sandu, called a huge corruption operation by criminal groups working in collaboration with foreign forces, namely the Kremlin cronies.

Moscow is now looking ahead to this weekend's elections in Georgia, where it is secretly conspiring to ensure the defeat of pro-Western parties. Such hybrid warfare Subversion, disinformation, influence operations, cyberattacks, scams and online trolling have increased around the world since 2022, as authoritarian regimes follow Russia's lead.

The failure to contain the war is encouraging seismic geopolitical shifts, including the no-holds-barred partnership between China and Russia. Chinese President Xi Jinping Gets Cheap Oil; Ostracized Putin benefits from dual-use sanctions-breaking technology and diplomatic support. But it's much more than that. At last week's Brics summit hosted by Putin, Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa were joined by Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and, alarmingly, NATO member Turkey (among many others). Putin envisions an anti-Western global alliance, Xi a new post-American, China-led world order for the 21st century.

These are not idle dreams. For many second-tier countries, the West's condemnation of Russian aggression in Ukraine and its refusal to condemn and actively facilitate Israeli aggression in Palestine represent an intolerable double standard. Some change sides.

What better illustration of the limitless nature of this inexorably expanding conflict than the startling news that North Korea, in a breathtaking counterpoint to American and British military intervention in the Korean War there is almost 75 years old, is deploy troops to the Ukrainian theater?

And how appalling that Donald Trump can cynically use Ukraine's forever war to persuade American voters that Democrats like Kamala Harris cannot control a chaotic world, that NATO is a scam run by parasitic Europeans and that the UN is useless.

The war distracts from other serious conflicts, from Sudan to Myanmar. Attacks on kyiv's grain exports have caused food shortages and price rises that have penalized poorer countries. This disrupts cooperative action on climate; indeed, this has significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions. While Putin, indicted for war crimes, goes unpunished, respect for international law and the UN charter collapses. Impunity thrives.

The enormous economic costs of war are increasing. The World Bank estimates that the first two years caused $152 billion (117 billion) in direct damage in Ukraine. The UN predicts that $486 billion will be needed for recovery and reconstruction. Every day the totals increase. Meanwhile, Russia is building shadowy international networks and an officially sanctioned black market to circumvent sanctions and undermine dollar hegemony.

The cost in human lives is heartbreaking. Conservative UN estimates suggest that approximately 10,000 civilians were killed and twice as many injured. More than 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers may be dead. Russian military losses are estimated at 115,000 killed and 500,000 wounded. The cost to Russian society of intensifying authoritarianism, corruption and the repression of dissent and media freedom is immeasurable.

Ukraine did not lose the war, which in itself is a remarkable achievement. But it's not a win either. Western support is weakening, despite the rhetoric; Russian forces are advancing. President Volodymyr Zelensky's plan for victory has few takers. Winter is coming.

How could this have been avoided? Some developments, like the Sino-Russian axis and the rise of right-wing populism, were happening anyway. The war simply accelerated them. But much of the worst damage could have been avoided, in whole or in part.

In Warsaw, Biden was frank, almost boastful: as early as January 2022, American intelligence services knew that the invasion was imminent. He said he had warned Putin repeatedly that this would be a big mistake. Yet given his passionate belief that Ukraine's struggle for democracy and freedom has vital universal significance, what Biden surely should have done was to tell the Russian dictator bluntly: forget it. Don't invade. Or you will find yourself fighting a better armed and more powerful NATO.

This is called deterrence. This is what NATO is for. Containment was never enough. Putin may still not have listened. But coward that he is, he probably would have done it and saved everyone a world of pain.