P Chidambaram writes: It's too early to tell

There were more celebrations in India than in the United States or China.

Contrasting announcements

The contrast was visible when the agreement between the two countries on the modalities of patrolling along the Line of Actual Control was announced a few days ago. This is the first breakthrough after the May 2020 clashes. On behalf of India, the Foreign Minister addressed a press conference, the Foreign Minister gave an interview and the head of the army spoke at an event. The foreign minister said that we have returned to the situation of 2020. However, the army chief said: We want to return to the status quo of April 2020. Subsequently, we will look at disengagement, de-escalation and normal management. of the Line of Actual Control.

On behalf of China, a spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs made a concrete statement: China and India are in close communication on border-related issues through diplomatic and military channels. At present, the two sides have reached a solution on relevant issues, which China assessed positively. In the next step, China will work with India to implement the above solution (ToI). He declined to reveal details.

Where we are

It will be useful to recall the position until last Sunday. PLA forces crossed the LAC into Indian territory in March-April 2020. India discovered the intrusion on May 5, 2020. In a bid to eliminate the intruders, India lost 20 brave soldiers. China also suffered an unknown number of casualties. The Prime Minister convened an all-party meeting on June 19, 2020. In his concluding remarks, the Prime Minister said: No foreigner has entered the territory of India, and no foreigner has trespassed into India. But according to several military officers and experts, India no longer controls around 1,000 km². of territory where our troops could patrol sooner.

The harsh reality is that China claims the entire Galwan Valley. He claims that the LAC passes through Finger 4 and not through Finger 8. China has not conceded anything on Hot Springs.

India wanted to discuss Demchok and Depsang but China refused. China is building military infrastructure in Aksai Chin and along the 3,488 km border it shares with India. It has installed 5G networks up to the LAC. He built a bridge over Pangong Tso. He brought military equipment and thousands of troops to the border.

The official stated position of the MEA is the restoration of the status quo ante. The government has systematically used the words disengagement, de-escalation, deinduction and withdrawal. In recent months, however, the MEA has not used the term status quo ante. The government has shown commendable patience and perseverance. If there is indeed an agreement, China has balked at this word and preferred to speak of significant progress in patrolling, it would be a reward for the government for having stayed the course in the face of China's unpredictable behavior.

Neither end nor beginning

It seems that the two countries have agreed on patrol arrangements, but nothing more.

It appears that patrols from the two camps will be coordinated, twice a month, and that the number of soldiers will be limited to fifteen. It is unclear whether these arrangements include the Demchok and Depsang plains. In Demchok in eastern Ladakh, after an agreement reached in 2017, China reoccupied the area and massively strengthened its presence there. In the Depsang Plains, China has blocked access to Indian troops beyond the Y-junction and traditional patrol points 10, 11, 11A, 12 and 13. There are other friction points such as Galwan , the north and south banks of Pangong Tso, and hot springs. It's a leap of faith to assume that all of these issues have been resolved. There is always an underlying current of distrust.

A sad reflection of our democracy is that India-China clashes have not been allowed to be discussed in Parliament even once in the last four years. Regarding the agreement on patrols, Defense experts advised caution; Congress raised relevant and obvious questions; and the other opposition parties remained silent. Will the October consensus lead India and China to a comprehensive negotiated solution? It's too early to tell.