The United States wants an end to direct fire between Israel and Iran. It may be too early to tell

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After Israel's attack on Iran on Saturday, U.S. officials quickly warned both countries against continuing the cycle of violence, but analysts say lasting de-escalation is not inevitable.

The airstrikes should mark the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, a senior US administration official said after the attacks.

After reports of explosions being heard in Tehran, Israel said in a statement that it launched what it described as precise strikes on military targets in Iran on Saturday morning. The strikes were in response to the barrage of Iranian missiles fired at Israel on October 1, in retaliation for the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and others.

Iran said Israel attacked parts of military centers in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces on Saturday, causing limited damage in some areas.

Iran appears to have downplayed the Israeli strike, Iranian experts said. State media broadcast images showing calm on the streets of Tehran, with traffic flowing smoothly and people going about their daily lives.

Iran's Foreign Ministry condemned the attack, calling it a blatant violation of international law. The ministry added that Iran considers itself entitled and obliged to defend itself after the Israeli strikes.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., said Iran's downplayed response may reflect more of its desire for de-escalation than a true assessment of the damage Israel has inflicted on Iran, like Israeli attempts to hide. Damage caused by the Iranian attack on October 1.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also based in Washington, said Iran's downplayed response could be a strategic move to save face and maintain U.S. coercion on Israel.

After several hours of strikes on Saturday, the Israeli military said it had targeted manufacturing sites used to produce missiles that Iran has fired at Israel over the past year. Israel also said it struck Iran's air defense systems early Saturday to allow its planes to attack other targets.

Israel's decision to strike early Saturday morning came after weeks of deliberations within its security cabinet over the nature and scope of such an attack, Israeli officials said.

US officials have been keen to show how moderate and precise the Israeli attack was, especially as the US has pushed Israel not to attack Iranian energy infrastructure for fear of triggering a wider conflict, a request that Israel appears to have heard, according to initial reports. reports.

After Israel's retaliatory strikes against Iran ended, National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said the White House was urging Iran to stop its attacks on Israel so that this round of fighting can end without further escalation.

But Israel has not always responded to the demands of its American ally. Throughout the war, Israel has defied U.S. calls for restraint over the Rafah operation in southern Gaza and, more recently, a ground war in southern Lebanon.

Disagreements between the two governments culminated in an October 13 letter from the United States to Israel, demanding that the Jewish state act to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza within the next 30 days or risk violating U.S. laws governing the foreign military assistance, suggesting that U.S. military aid may be at risk.

Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher in the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a retired Israeli defense intelligence officer specializing in Iran, said it was too early to predict how would unfold the hours and days to come. But one thing is clear, he said, Israel and Iran moved closer than ever last night to the brink of direct war.

The ball is now in the Iranian leaders' court, Citrinowicz said on X, adding that the Iranian regime likely faces a familiar dilemma: retaliate to gain reputation, or view the Israeli attack as the end of direct conflict.

Parsi, of the Quincy Institute, said that if Iran chose to show restraint, this chapter could be closed, but the conflict would still be alive and well.

When Iran chose restraint after Israeli retaliation in April, it encouraged the Jewish state to eliminate top Hezbollah leaders in Beirut, triggering a new round of aggression.

Experts say that as Israel continues its wars in Gaza and Lebanon, any pause in direct fighting between Iran and Israel will likely be short-lived.

As long as these regional wars persist, the overall trajectory of the Israel-Iran conflict will intensify. Even though we may see some tactical de-escalation, the trajectory remains one of escalation, Parsi said, adding that a new exchange of fire between Israel and Iran would only be a matter of time, with the next round likely to occur. 'be more fierce.

Israel has long tried to bring Iran and other Iranian proxies back to deterrence. But experts say the Israeli strategy may not be entirely effective.

Iran will not be deterred from future escalation if it sees fit, nor will Israel, said HA Hellyer, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies in London, to Paula Newton on CNN: adding that deterrence is often used as an excuse by the attacking state, but only leads to more regional instability.

There is no de-escalation through escalation, he said, which is the most incredible thing I've heard.

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