Here are the 5 most important American economic issues for voters

As polls show Americans place the economy as their top concern in the Nov. 5 election, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making last-minute pitches to convince voters that they know how to ensure the financial prosperity of the country.

At the same time, many factors that affect the country's economic performance are beyond the president's control, from shocks like Russia's invasion of Ukraine to supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, which contributed to the highest US inflation in 40 years.

Although experts largely give high marks to the current economy, most Americans disagree: 52 percent tell Gallup they feel worse off than they were today. is four years old. That's partly due to partisan differences — Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they're in more trouble than in 2020, according to Gallup — but economists say it's also linked to ongoing pain from to the global disruptions caused by the pandemic.

“It’s inflation, stupid!” wrote Bernard Yaros, senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an Oct. 24 report, borrowing from famed political strategist James Carville. “Inflation is voters’ top concern, and how it is perceived will determine the election.”

Here are five key factors that could influence voters' decisions when casting their ballot.

Inflation: a low rate, but prices remain high

Inflation across the country has slowed significantly since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to a three-year low of 2.4%. in September, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target.

But ask almost any American if inflation is still high, and the answer is usually a resounding “yes.” In fact, more than one in four people surveyed by YouGov in August said they thought the current inflation rate was above 10%. The reason: the constant rise in prices. Although inflation is near pre-pandemic levels, prices have not retreated and continue to impact consumers.

Take the example of food prices, which increased by just 1.3% in September compared to the previous year. Even though this rate is low, it means shoppers have to pay 1.3% more to fill their baskets, on top of food prices which have already jumped 26% since January 2020. That's hard to swallow for a lot of people.

“If enough independent voters in battleground states are still feeling the shock of alarming inflation in 2021 and 2022, former President Donald Trump should win the electoral college,” Yaros wrote.

In contrast, “if influential voters focus on the rate of change in consumer prices rather than the price level, they will be more likely to support the vice president because of the significant moderation in inflation since mid-2022,” he noted.

Jobs and wages: winners and losers

The job market is strong, with the U.S. unemployment rate near a 50-year low. Despite this, the unemployment rate has increased slightly in recent months, one of the reasons why the Fed chose to cut rates last month. Wages have been increasing faster than inflation since May 2023, helping to pull some households out of the financial hole created by soaring prices.

But these statistics don't outweigh the long-term problems affecting some workers. Men without college degrees, for example, have lost economic ground in recent decades as the job market has shifted toward occupations requiring higher education and training.

White men without a bachelor's degree earned more than the average worker in 1980, the New York Times found in a recent analysis of census data. But today, this group of workers earns far less than the average American, while college-educated women surpass them in earnings.

White Americans without a college degree are more likely to say the economy is in bad shape than those with a bachelor's degree, and they are also more likely to support Trump, according to a CBS News poll. In an Oct. 23-25 ​​CBS News poll, about 63% of whites without a college education said they planned to vote for Trump, compared with 48% of those with a postsecondary degree.

Immigration: costs for the economy

Voters also view immigration as a major issue, and Trump has stepped up his attacks on the Biden-Harris administration's record on illegal immigration, pledging to carry out the largest deportation in American history if he was elected.

But it's also an economic problem, given that there are more than 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States, many of whom work in meat processing plants, on farms, on construction sites and in other jobs essential to the well-being of the country.

Deporting these immigrants could cause major economic hardship, according to Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “Expelling migrants would be stagflationary for the American economy,” he wrote on X in July. “The greater the restrictions and expulsions, the more recessionary effects outweigh inflationary effects for the Fed.”

It would also cost taxpayers billions to deport millions of people, with a CBS News analysis estimating that it would cost $20 billion to apprehend and deport a million people alone.

Taxes: reductions to come?

Taxes took center stage in both campaigns, as Trump and Harris pledged to implement a number of tax cuts and credits to help certain groups of people.

In some cases, candidates have proposed the same tax breaks, such as one to eliminate taxes on tips. But Trump went further, proposing a long list of cuts to everyone from Social Security recipients to car buyers.

But the biggest issue ahead is the future of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act, Trump's signature 2017 law that brought big tax cuts to corporations and the wealthy, as well as smaller reductions for millions other Americans. Trump wants to renew many of these provisions, while reducing the corporate tax rate to 15%, from the current 21%.

Still, changes to the tax code must pass the House and Senate, which could be a significant challenge for either candidate if Congress is divided during the next administration.

The deficit and federal debt: growing

Another issue is the country's national debt and growing deficit, with both candidates' economic proposals expected to add trillions to the country's debt.

Harris' plans would add nearly $4 trillion to the debt through 2035, while Trump's plan would increase it by nearly $8 trillion, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Federal Budget responsible, which favors narrower deficits.

“The national debt currently stands at 99% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected to rise from 102% of GDP at the start of the year. [fiscal year] 2026 to 125% by the end of 2035, based on current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) baseline legislation,” the group wrote in an Oct. 28 analysis.

He adds: “Whoever wins the 2024 presidential election will face an unprecedented fiscal situation upon taking office…Already, the cost of servicing our high and growing national debt has eclipsed the cost of defending our nation or the provision of health care to older Americans. “

It's also an issue that concerns Americans in battleground states, according to an October poll from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which found that 9 in 10 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Carolina Northerners, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin think the candidates need a plan to reduce the nation's debt.

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Aimee Picchi is an associate editor at CBS MoneyWatch, where she covers business and personal finance. She previously worked at Bloomberg News and wrote for national media outlets including USA Today and Consumer Reports.

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