In Indonesia, transfer of power between Jokowi and Prabowo –

The change between the two leaders is an opportunity to understand what is expected of the newly elected President, but also to reflect on the legacy of the outgoing Head of State.

On October 20, the inauguration ceremony of new President Prabowo Subianto took place in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital, who becomes the country's eighth head of state, succeeding Joko Widodo (better known as Jokowi), forced to leave power after 10 years in office. government, because he is not eligible for a third term in accordance with the precepts of the Constitution. At the same time, Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka, Jokowi's son, also took office.

Previously fierce political rivals, Prabowo and Jokowi became allies over time, so much so that the latter appointed his first Minister of the Interior in 2019. Moreover, to support Prabowo in the electoral campaign, Jokowi even turned his back to Ganjar Pranowo, candidate of his own party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

Another sign of the growing closeness between the two leaders was Prabowo's choice to nominate Gibran, Jokowi's eldest son, as his running mate. Indeed, some believe that one of the reasons why Prabowo won the elections was precisely the support of the incumbent president, who still enjoys great popularity. Gibran's appointment sparked controversy, however, with accusations leveled against Jokowi of bending the rules to create a political dynasty.

Indeed, in anticipation of the elections, the Indonesian Constitutional Court, headed at the time by Jokowi's brother-in-law, who had resigned following the controversy, had modified the rules concerning the minimum age of candidates, thus allowing Gibran to introduce himself. The above decision was seen as a clear manipulation of the country's highest judicial institution by the then president, with the aim of favoring his son (and Prabowo).

However, this is just the latest in a list of actions perpetrated by Jokowi that are deemed undemocratic. At the time of his election, the former president was greeted as a beacon of hope, as he was the first not to come from Indonesia's political elite. Among his supporters were also many opponents of the Suharto regime, in power until 1998, of which Prabowo was, however, a representative, although he tried to distance himself from it later.

Nevertheless, over the years, Jokowi has gradually become the protagonist, rather than of a new democratization, of a democratic retreat. During its mandate, in fact, the government extended its influence over a growing number of state institutions, including the aforementioned Constitutional Court, but also the Commission responsible for the elimination of corruption. repression against political opponents and other forms of dissent has also increased, resulting in a reduction in freedom of expression and the press.

Another source of concern has been (and continues to be) the dominant role that military and security forces appear to play, even within political institutions; This is accompanied by frequent use of violence during anti-government protests. If this aspect already raised concerns under Jokowi, the fear that the phenomenon could further increase under Prabowo, also taking into account his past as a general and his role in the atrocities committed under the regime of Suharto (who was also his father law).

We therefore wonder what is due to the strong popularity that Jokowi still enjoys; this can certainly be attributed to the successes on the economic front. In fact, he has always been seen as attentive to the daily needs of Indonesians, improving their living conditions. Under Jokowi's presidency, all major economic indicators have improved; GDP recorded growth rates equal to or greater than 5%managing to quickly overcome the pandemic crisis, the management of which by the former president nevertheless received rather positive reviews.

According to World Bank data, the poverty ratewell above 11% at the time of Jokowi's election, rising to just over 9% in 2024; the unemployment rateabove 4% in the phase before Jokowi came to power, fell to 3.4% in 2023; At the end, the inflation rateequal to 6.4% in 2014, almost halved in 2023, to 3.7% (after reaching a low of 1.6% in 2021 and then increasing again due to the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict).

Jokowi also placed great emphasis on infrastructure development, culminating in the pharaonic new capital project Nusantara, being built on the island of Borneo, with the aim of replacing increasingly congested Jakarta. The project, estimated to cost more than 500 trillion Indonesian rupiahs (about $35 billion), is expected to be completed by 2045, the year the country's 100th independence anniversary will be celebrated.

Although the capital received a sort of first inauguration on August 17on the occasion of the National Independence Day celebrations, construction work suffered numerous slowdowns due to lack of funds, due to the difficulty of finding investors internationally; this could lead us to postpone the final conclusion of the work. Nusantara is undoubtedly one of Jokowi's most burdensome legacies in Prabowo.

In his inaugural speechthe latter, with nearly 60% of the votes obtained in the elections, immediately outlined its priorities, particularly in the economic field: continued poverty reduction; fight against corruption; achieve food self-sufficiency, initially, then energy self-sufficiency, in order to safeguard the independence of the country. A strong nationalist imprint appears evident, which had already manifested itself in the past, when Prabowo accused the Indonesian political class of having sold the country to foreigners.

Many observers predicted that Prabowo might engage in greater economic adventurism than his predecessor. If, on the one hand, it would have the potential to stimulate growth and development, on the other, such a policy, if not managed in the best possible way, could have harmful effects on the finances of the State and impose an increased tax burden on citizens.

In this regard, the size of the executive has raised doubts, the largest since the 1960s, composed of more than 100 people, including 48 ministers and 58 deputy ministers, a number almost double compared to the executive led by Jokowi. Many believe that all this is a waste of public money and goes in a completely opposite direction to the fight against corruption promised by the new president.

Regarding the theme of democracy, Prabowo pledged to maintain it, specifying however that it must be polite, that is to say with a courteous and calm expression of dissent. Opponents say this could suggest the possibility of harsh responses to any protests against him, which could be seen as an attempt to challenge the legitimacy of his government. Furthermore, as noted above, there are concerns about the role of military and security forces, which could be strengthened even more decisively.

In this sense, Prabowo promised a modernization and expansion of the defense and security apparatus, not only through the acquisition of new weapons and technological means from abroad, but also, always from a nationalist perspective, in relaunching internal production, to guarantee order and justice. and national independence, as well as projecting a more combative image of the country on the world stage.

It appears that Prabowo plans to devote greater attention to foreign policy compared to what his predecessor did, who often preferred to stay away from international summits. The new president reiterated Indonesia's non-alignment stance, which will continue to maintain good relations with the United States and its Western allies as well as China, Russia and other adversarial countries. unipolar order led by the United States.

ASEAN will also have a big place in Prabowo's foreign policy; This is evidenced by the presence of almost all the heads of state and government of the countries of the region during the inauguration ceremony on October 20. The President intends to restore the centrality of the Association in the Indo-Pacific and assert Indonesia, the leading country in terms of geographic size, population and economic size, as the leading state in the bloc.

Even if there seems to be continuity between Prabowo and Jokowi in the economic field, the new president intends to distinguish himself from his predecessor, by experimenting with greater adventurism and paying more attention to foreign policy. The main dilemma, however, concerns domestic politics and the status of democracy in Indonesia: to understand who Prabowo will be as president, all that remains is to see him in action.